Opinion polling for the 2009 Portuguese legislative election

In the run up to the 2009 Portuguese legislative election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 20 February 2005, to the day the next election was held, on 27 September 2009.

Nationwide polling

Graphical summary

00.10.20.30.40.50.62/20/200511/10/20062/24/20086/2/2009PSPSDCDUCDS-PPBEOpinion polling for the 2009 Portuguese legi...
View source data.

Polling

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date PS PSD CDU CDS–PP BE O Lead
2009 legislative election 27 Sep 2009 36.6
97 		29.1
81 		7.9
15 		10.4
21 		9.8
16 		6.2
0 		7.5
Eurosondagem 27 Sep 2009 (21:00) 35.4–
37.6
94/102 		27.1–
28.9
74/78 		7.4–
9.2
15 		9.2–
11.2
18/20 		9.7–
11.5
17/21 		– 8.3–
8.7
Eurosondagem 27 Sep 2009 (20:00) 36.2–
40.4
99/103 		26.9–
30.7
74/77 		6.5–
8.7
13/15 		7.7–
9.9
15/17 		9.0–
11.2
18/20 		– 9.3–
9.7
Intercampus 27 Sep 2009 36.0–
40.0
97/111 		26.3–
30.3
69/80 		6.0–
9.0
10/15 		8.6–
11.6
16/22 		8.5–
11.5
18/22 		4.6–
7.6
0 		9.7
CESOP–UCP 27 Sep 2009 36–40
102/106 		25–29
69/73 		7–10
14/16 		8.5–
11.5
18/21 		9–12
20/23 		– 11
Aximage 21–24 Sep 2009 38.8 29.1 8.4 8.6 10.0 5.1 9.7
Intercampus 21–23 Sep 2009 38.0 29.9 8.4 7.7 9.4 6.6 8.1
CESOP–UCP 17–22 Sep 2009 38
100 		30
80 		7
13 		8
15 		11
22 		6
0 		8
Marktest 18–21 Sep 2009 40.0 31.6 7.2 8.2 9.0 4.0 8.4
Aximage 14–17 Sep 2009 36.1 29.7 7.5 7.6 10.0 9.1 6.4
Eurosondagem 13–16 Sep 2009 34.9
88/96 		31.6
80/87 		8.4
15 		8.4
15/17 		9.6
18/20 		7.1
0/1 		3.3
Intercampus 12–15 Sep 2009 32.9 29.7 9.2 7.0 12.0 9.2 3.2
CESOP–UCP 11–14 Sep 2009 38 32 7 7 12 4 6
Eurosondagem 6–9 Sep 2009 33.6
84/90 		32.5
84/90 		9.4
16/19 		8.0
14/16 		9.6
18/20 		6.9
0/1 		1.1
CESOP–UCP 4–8 Sep 2009 37 35 8 6 11 3 2
Marktest 4–7 Sep 2009 35.3 32.4 6.9 5.2 16.2 4.0 2.9
Aximage 1–4 Sep 2009 34.5 28.9 7.8 8.1 10.4 10.3 5.6
Eurosondagem 23–28 Jul 2009 33.0 31.1 9.4 8.5 10.0 8.0 1.9
Marktest 14–18 Jul 2009 35.5 34.2 7.4 4.4 14.3 4.2 1.3
Aximage 1–6 Jul 2009 30.5 30.3 9.5 6.1 13.3 10.3 0.2
Eurosondagem 25–30 Jun 2009 35.1 33.0 9.7 7.4 9.6 5.2 2.1
Marktest 16–20 Jun 2009 34.5 35.8 7.7 4.4 13.1 4.5 1.3
2009 EP election 7 Jun 2009 26.5
(75) 		31.7
(95) 		10.6
(24) 		8.4
(15) 		10.7
(20) 		12.1
(1) 		5.2
Intercampus 7 Jun 2009 36.9 31.2 10.3 6.4 13.1 2.1 5.7
Aximage[1] 1–4 Jun 2009 35.3 29.8 9.0 6.5 11.5 7.9 5.5
Eurosondagem 28 May–2 Jun 2009 39.6 33.0 7.9 5.6 9.1 4.8 6.6
Marktest 20–22 May 2009 36.3 28.3 9.4 7.1 14.7 4.2 8.0
Aximage[2] 5–7 May 2009 37.3 26.7 8.5 5.2 12.6 9.7 10.6
Eurosondagem 30 Apr–5 May 2009 38.8 30.5 9.2 6.9 9.8 4.8 8.3
CESOP–UCP 25–26 Apr 2009 41 34 7 2 12 4 7
Marktest 14–19 Apr 2009 36.2 26.4 11.2 8.3 13.6 4.3 9.8
Aximage[3] 1–3 Apr 2009 38.1 25.1 10.3 5.7 12.6 8.2 13.0
Eurosondagem 25–31 Mar 2009 39.6 29.6 9.4 7.0 9.6 4.8 10.0
Marktest 17–21 Mar 2009 36.7 28.4 8.9 9.4 12.6 4.0 8.3
Aximage[4] 2–5 Mar 2009 38.3 24.0 9.0 6.8 12.6 9.3 14.3
Eurosondagem 26 Feb–3 Mar 2009 39.0 28.3 9.6 7.7 10.4 5.0 10.7
Marktest 17–22 Feb 2009 38.2 28.8 10.6 4.1 14.0 4.3 9.4
Aximage 2–5 Feb 2009 38.2 23.8 9.2 7.7 12.0 9.1 14.4
Eurosondagem 28 Jan–3 Feb 2009 40.3 29.1 8.8 6.9 10.1 4.8 11.2
Marktest 20–23 Jan 2009 39.6 24.9 11.9 9.7 10.1 3.8 14.7
Eurosondagem 7–13 Jan 2009 41.1 30.1 8.3 6.1 9.6 4.8 11.0
Aximage 6–9 Jan 2009 37.3 23.3 8.1 7.7 11.4 12.2 14.0
Marktest 16–19 Dec 2008 39.9 25.7 11.0 8.0 11.6 3.8 14.2
CESOP–UCP 13–14 Dec 2008 41 30 10 4 9 6 11
Aximage[5] 3–5 Dec 2008 37.9 25.9 8.4 6.2 9.5 12.1 12.0
Eurosondagem[6] 27 Nov–2 Dec 2008 42.5 30.0 8.4 6.0 8.7 4.4 12.5
Marktest 18–21 Nov 2008 40.1 26.4 10.0 6.2 13.1 4.2 13.7
Eurosondagem[6] 5 Nov 2008 41.8 32.1 8.5 5.2 8.4 4.0 9.7
Aximage[7] 3–5 Nov 2008 38.6 26.1 9.0 4.7 9.1 12.5 12.5
Marktest 21–24 Oct 2008 39.8 28.7 10.0 6.4 11.4 3.7 11.1
Intercampus 17–21 Oct 2008 43.9 28.9 10.2 4.0 12.3 0.8 15.0
Aximage[8] 6–8 Oct 2008 38.0 28.5 9.2 3.8 9.3 11.2 9.5
CESOP–UCP 4–5 Oct 2008 41 34 8 2 8 7 7
Eurosondagem 25–30 Sep 2008 40.2 33.3 9.9 4.8 7.7 4.1 6.9
Marktest 16–20 Sep 2008 36.1 29.3 12.6 7.1 10.9 4.0 6.8
Aximage[9] 8–10 Sep 2008 35.7 28.9 10.4 3.8 9.3 11.9 6.8
Eurosondagem[10] 27 Aug–2 Sep 2008 39.0 33.0 10.1 5.0 8.4 4.5 6.0
Aximage[11] 28–29 Jul 2008 33.1 31.1 9.1 4.4 9.4 12.9 2.0
Eurosondagem 23–29 Jul 2008 39.6 32.0 10.0 5.5 8.1 4.8 7.6
Marktest 15–18 Jul 2008 36.7 32.7 10.0 5.1 11.4 4.1 4.0
CESOP–UCP 5–9 Jul 2008 40 32 10 3 7 8 8
Aximage[permanent dead link] 1–4 Jul 2008 32.5 32.0 9.7 4.3 8.2 13.3 0.5
Eurosondagem 26 Jun–1 Jul 2008 40.0 29.0 10.1 6.0 9.6 5.3 11.0
Marktest 17–21 Jun 2008 35.2 30.8 11.1 6.7 12.3 3.9 4.4
Eurosondagem 28 May–3 Jun 2008 41.8 25.0 11.0 6.9 10.0 5.3 16.8
Marktest 19–26 May 2008 33.0 32.0 12.8 6.7 11.3 4.2 1.0
Aximage[permanent dead link] 7–8 May 2008 36.5 29.0 – – – 34.5 7.5
Eurosondagem[dead link] 23–29 Apr 2008 43.2 26.9 10.0 6.3 8.8 4.8 16.3
Marktest 15–18 Apr 2008 38.0 31.5 10.8 4.3 11.5 3.9 6.5
Aximage[12] 2–4 Apr 2008 35.7 26.0 8.9 5.1 10.2 14.1 9.7
Eurosondagem 27 Mar–1 Apr 2008 42.1 29.4 9.6 6.0 8.4 4.5 12.7
Marktest 17–20 Mar 2008 37.8 31.9 12.1 4.0 10.4 3.8 5.9
Aximage[13] 3–5 Mar 2008 33.8 28.4 9.2 4.5 8.5 15.6 5.4
Eurosondagem 20–26 Feb 2008 43.2 31.2 8.3 5.8 7.2 4.3 12.0
CESOP–UCP 23–24 Feb 2008 39 32 9 3 8 9 7
Marktest 19–21 Feb 2008 36.1 33.4 12.8 5.6 8.0 4.1 2.7
Aximage[14] 1–4 Feb 2008 35.8 30.0 8.2 4.6 7.2 14.2 5.8
Eurosondagem 24–28 Jan 2008 42.5 33.0 8.0 6.3 6.9 3.3 9.5
Marktest 15–18 Jan 2008 38.1 33.5 9.9 6.3 8.4 3.8 4.6
Aximage[permanent dead link] 7–9 Jan 2008 35.2 31.8 9.1 4.6 6.6 12.7 3.4
Eurosondagem[15] 2–8 Jan 2008 43.3 32.5 8.0 6.0 6.6 3.6 10.8
Marktest 18–21 Dec 2007 41.0 32.5 9.5 5.4 7.8 3.8 8.5
Aximage[16] 5–7 Dec 2007 37.0 29.2 8.5 4.4 6.7 14.2 7.8
Eurosondagem[17] 28 Nov–4 Dec 2007 44.2 32.1 8.6 5.9 6.3 2.9 12.1
Marktest 20–23 Nov 2007 43.8 31.5 9.0 4.5 7.1 4.1 12.3
Aximage[18] 7–9 Nov 2007 36.1 27.8 8.1 3.8 6.6 17.6 8.3
Eurosondagem[19] 24–30 Oct 2007 45.5 31.5 8.8 5.0 5.9 3.3 14.0
CESOP–UCP 20–21 Oct 2007 41 35 9 6 4 5 6
Marktest 16–19 Oct 2007 36.9 35.9 12.3 2.9 8.1 3.9 1.0
Eurosondagem[19] 2 Oct 2007 45.4 28.9 10.1 5.2 5.9 4.5 16.5
Aximage 1–2 Oct 2007 34.8 27.3 9.0 3.1 6.8 19.0 7.5
Marktest 18–21 Sep 2007 41.5 27.6 10.8 8.4 7.5 4.2 13.9
Aximage[20] 3–4 Sep 2007 34.6 28.3 11.1 3.8 5.7 16.5 6.3
Eurosondagem[21] 22–28 Aug 2007 45.2 30.3 9.2 5.0 5.5 4.8 14.9
Marktest 14–17 Aug 2007 42.7 28.3 9.4 7.2 8.5 3.9 14.4
Eurosondagem[21] 7 Aug 2007 43.5 33.0 7.7 4.8 6.9 4.1 10.5
Aximage[20] 21–22 Jul 2007 38.5 28.2 10.2 4.3 5.8 13.0 10.3
Marktest 17–20 Jul 2007 43.9 29.0 8.0 6.0 9.0 4.1 14.9
Aximage[22] 4–6 Jul 2007 40.4 26.9 – – – 32.7 13.5
Marktest 19–22 Jun 2007 40.4 29.3 10.0 7.4 8.7 4.2 11.1
Aximage[23] 5–7 Jun 2007 38.5 26.2 35.3 12.3
Eurosondagem[dead link] 24–29 May 2007 44.6 33.4 7.7 4.0 6.6 3.7 11.2
Marktest 15–18 May 2007 46.8 27.3 8.4 5.6 8.2 3.7 19.5
Aximage[24] 30 Apr–4 May 2007 36.7 26.7 7.6 6.0 7.0 16.0 10.0
Eurosondagem 26 Apr–2 May 2007 42.2 33.5 8.9 3.7 7.7 4.0 8.7
Marktest 17–20 Apr 2007 43.3 27.7 12.6 4.8 7.8 3.8 15.6
Aximage[25] 16–18 Apr 2007 36.9 28.2 7.3 6.3 7.5 13.8 8.7
Aximage 30 Mar–4 Apr 2007 35.7 30.0 7.0 6.5 7.9 12.9 5.7
Eurosondagem[26] 28 Mar–2 Apr 2007 44.2 32.3 9.5 2.7 7.4 3.9 11.9
Marktest 19–21 Mar 2007 46.5 25.8 9.2 5.7 9.0 3.8 20.7
Eurosondagem 2 Mar 2007 45.4 32.0 8.6 3.8 6.4 3.8 13.4
Aximage 1–2 Mar 2007 37.4 31.2 6.2 6.3 7.6 11.3 6.2
Marktest 13–16 Feb 2007 47.1 27.3 9.7 4.8 7.0 4.1 19.8
Aximage 31 Jan–2 Feb 2007 39.0 29.4 6.5 5.0 6.0 14.1 9.6
Eurosondagem 25–30 Jan 2007 44.4 33.3 7.8 4.4 6.7 3.4 11.1
Marktest 16–19 Jan 2007 42.7 28.4 9.2 7.6 8.3 3.8 14.3
Eurosondagem 12 Jan 2007 45.5 34.4 7.7 4.0 6.6 1.8 11.1
Aximage[27] 7–9 Jan 2007 38.9 28.4 8.2 3.4 4.9 16.2 10.5
Marktest 19–22 Dec 2006 43.1 28.5 9.8 6.7 8.3 3.6 14.6
Aximage[28] 5–7 Dec 2006 40.9 28.6 7.1 3.0 3.9 16.5 12.3
Eurosondagem 29 Nov–5 Dec 2006 44.4 31.3 8.8 4.7 8.0 2.8 13.1
Marktest 13–15 Nov 2006 43.4 28.5 10.3 5.7 8.2 3.9 14.9
Eurosondagem 10 Nov 2006 43.7 32.2 9.2 4.6 6.9 3.4 11.5
Aximage[29] 6–8 Nov 2006 39.4 29.3 7.2 2.8 3.9 17.4 10.1
Marktest 17–20 Oct 2006 42.0 29.7 10.6 3.9 9.7 4.1 12.3
Aximage[30] 2–4 Oct 2006 38.2 29.7 7.3 3.4 4.7 16.7 8.5
Eurosondagem 27 Sep–3 Oct 2006 44.6 33.5 7.7 4.0 6.5 3.7 11.1
Marktest 19–22 Sep 2006 45.7 29.9 9.9 1.7 8.4 4.4 15.8
Aximage[31] 6–7 Sep 2006 36.6 29.6 9.1 3.3 6.7 14.7 7.0
Eurosondagem 31 Aug–5 Sep 2006 44.2 34.3 7.1 5.0 5.9 3.5 9.9
Marktest 15–18 Aug 2006 44.4 30.9 9.8 2.2 8.5 4.2 13.5
Marktest 18–21 Jul 2006 43.1 31.9 9.7 2.6 8.6 4.1 11.2
Eurosondagem 29 Jun–4 Jul 2006 43.8 32.5 8.7 3.9 7.5 3.6 11.3
Marktest 20–23 Jun 2006 44.1 28.6 9.5 6.1 7.8 3.9 15.5
Eurosondagem 8 Jun 2006 43.0 34.5 8.0 4.9 6.9 2.7 8.5
Aximage[32] 2–3 Jun 2006 36.8 31.7 7.6 3.8 5.7 14.4 5.1
Marktest 16–19 May 2006 42.1 30.2 8.2 7.0 8.5 4.0 11.9
Aximage[33] 4–5 May 2006 37.5 32.2 8.2 4.6 3.8 13.7 5.3
Eurosondagem 26 Apr–2 May 2006 43.3 36.0 6.9 5.0 5.2 3.6 7.3
Marktest 18–21 Apr 2006 43.1 30.5 8.0 5.2 9.0 4.2 12.6
Eurosondagem 10 Apr 2006 42.4 36.6 7.7 4.7 5.0 3.6 5.8
Aximage[34] 1–3 Apr 2006 37.8 34.2 7.6 3.8 4.4 12.2 3.6
Marktest 21–24 Mar 2006 41.9 35.1 7.2 4.0 7.8 4.0 6.8
Eurosondagem 2–7 Mar 2006 42.6 34.3 8.4 4.8 6.3 3.6 8.3
Aximage[35] 1–3 Mar 2006 37.9 34.1 6.9 4.0 5.1 12.0 3.8
Marktest 15–19 Feb 2006 38.0 35.8 9.6 3.8 8.8 4.0 2.2
Eurosondagem 2–7 Feb 2006 41.4 36.0 8.0 5.2 5.8 3.6 5.4
Aximage[36] 1–3 Feb 2006 37.9 34.5 6.9 4.4 7.3 9.0 3.4
Eurosondagem 5–10 Jan 2006 43.3 33.0 7.7 5.8 6.9 3.3 10.3
Aximage[37] 3–5 Jan 2006 37.5 33.9 7.1 4.2 8.2 9.1 3.6
Aximage[permanent dead link] 30 Nov–2 Dec 2005 35.4 34.9 7.4 4.8 7.7 9.8 0.5
Marktest 15–19 Nov 2005 35.4 37.7 9.1 5.3 8.5 4.0 2.3
Aximage[38] 7–8 Nov 2005 35.1 33.4 8.1 4.1 7.2 12.1 1.7
Marktest 18–21 Oct 2005 37.3 36.1 8.2 5.3 9.1 4.0 1.2
Aximage[39] 17–19 Oct 2005 35.4 32.7 7.6 3.7 8.0 12.6 2.7
2005 local elections 9 Oct 2005 35.9
(94) 		39.9
(105) 		10.9
(22) 		3.1
(4) 		3.0
(5) 		7.2
(0) 		4.0
Eurosondagem 22–27 Sep 2005 42.5 33.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 3.5 9.5
Marktest 20–26 Sep 2005 33.7 39.0 9.6 4.3 9.6 3.8 5.3
Aximage[40] 5–6 Sep 2005 38.2 30.1 31.7 8.1
Eurosondagem 1–6 Sep 2005 43.0 31.9 7.8 6.2 6.8 4.2 11.1
Marktest 19–22 Jul 2005 43.0 31.2 8.2 4.0 9.4 4.2 11.8
Aximage[41] 1–5 Jul 2005 40.4 28.4 6.5 4.5 7.2 13.0 12.0
UCP 18–20 Jun 2005 42 31 11 3 8 5 11
Marktest 14–17 Jun 2005 46.5 27.7 10.8 4.2 6.9 3.9 18.8
Aximage[42] 3–6 Jun 2005 45.7 26.0 5.8 3.1 6.7 12.7 19.3
Marktest 17–19 May 2005 48.8 30.2 6.0 4.2 6.8 4.0 18.6
Aximage 3–4 May 2005 46.1 26.5 6.6 4.9 5.2 10.7 19.6
Marktest 19–22 Apr 2005 45.7 30.6 7.2 4.5 8.1 3.9 15.1
Aximage[41] 3–4 Apr 2005 44.7 29.3 7.2 4.8 5.8 8.2 15.4
Marktest 15–18 Mar 2005 51.7 26.3 6.5 5.0 6.7 3.8 25.4
2005 legislative election 20 Feb 2005 45.0
121 		28.8
75 		7.5
14 		7.2
12 		6.4
8 		5.1
0 		16.2

Leadership polls

Preferred prime minister

Poll results showing public opinion on who would make the best prime minister are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Sócrates vs Ferreira Leite

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date José
Sócrates 		Ferreira
Leite 		N/B/NO Lead
Aximage 14–17 Sep 2009 45.7 26.4 27.9 19.3
Aximage 1–4 Sep 2009 42.0 26.1 31.9 15.9
Aximage 1–6 Jul 2009 42.4 29.1 28.5 13.3
Aximage 1–4 Jun 2009 46.0 32.0 22.0 14.0
Aximage 5–7 May 2009 46.6 22.7 30.7 23.9
Aximage 1–3 Apr 2009 46.6 22.7 30.7 23.9
Aximage 2–5 Mar 2009 48.3 20.5 31.2 27.8
Aximage 2–5 Feb 2009 47.9 22.3 29.8 25.6
Aximage 6–9 Jan 2009 47.5 22.9 29.6 24.6
Aximage 3–5 Dec 2008 47.9 24.9 27.2 23.0
Aximage 3–5 Nov 2008 46.8 26.3 26.9 20.5
Aximage 6–8 Oct 2008 40.9 28.4 30.7 12.5
Aximage 8–10 Sep 2008 38.7 30.3 31.0 8.4
Aximage 28–29 Jul 2008 37.0 33.2 29.8 3.8
Aximage 1–4 Jul 2008 36.1 33.1 30.8 3.0

Cabinet approval/disapproval ratings

Poll results showing public opinion on the performance of the Government are shown in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first.

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date José Sócrates' cabinet
Approve Disapprove Neither No opinion Net
CESOP–UCP 4–8 Sep 2009 37 57 N/a 6 20
CESOP–UCP 13–14 Dec 2008 35 60 N/a 5 25
CESOP–UCP 23–24 Feb 2008 26 66 N/a 8 40

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  35. ^ "Nota positiva para o governo de Sócrates". Correio da Manhã. Archived from the original on 2016-03-04 – via Wayback Machine.
  36. ^ "Sobe confiança no governo". Correio da Manhã. Archived from the original on 2016-03-04 – via Wayback Machine.
  37. ^ "Portugueses acreditam cada vez menos na retoma". Correio da Manhã. Archived from the original on 2016-03-04 – via Wayback Machine.
  38. ^ "Expectativa melhora e PS aguenta-se". Correio da Manhã. Archived from the original on 2016-03-04 – via Wayback Machine.
  39. ^ "Maioria desiludida". Correio da Manhã. Archived from the original on 2016-03-04 – via Wayback Machine.
  40. ^ "Eleitores reprovam Sócrates". Correio da Manhã. Archived from the original on 2016-03-04 – via Wayback Machine.
  41. ^ a b "A primeira queda do PS". Correio da Manhã. Archived from the original on 2016-03-04 – via Wayback Machine.
  42. ^ "Estado de graça em queda". Correio da Manhã. Archived from the original on 2016-03-04 – via Wayback Machine.
allikas: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2009_Portuguese_legislative_election