The next papal conclave will occur after the death or resignation of Pope Francis.

Speculation

The next conclave saw speculation in February and March 2025 after Francis developed double pneumonia.[1]

Papabili

The conclave cardinals may elect any baptized Catholic male,[2][3] but since 1389 they have always elected a fellow cardinal. Observers of papal elections tend to consider a few cardinals more likely choices than the others – these are the papabili, the plural for papabile, an Italian word which is practically rendered into English as "pope-able". Inasmuch as the set of papabili is a matter of speculation from the press, the election of a non-papabile is common; recent cases are John XXIII in 1958, John Paul I and John Paul II, both in 1978.

Pietro Parolin of Italy,[4] Robert Sarah of Guinea,[4] and Luis Tagle of the Philippines[4] are among the cardinals most often identified in press reports as those most likely to be elected.

Papal election process

Next papal conclave
Eligible electors by region as of 1 March 2025
  Italy
17
  Rest of Europe
36
  Asia
24
  North America
20
  South America
18
  Africa
18
  Oceania
4
Total electors 137

Cardinals aged 80 years or older before the day the papacy fell vacant will be ineligible to participate. As of 1 March 2025, there are 252 cardinals of whom 137 are aged under 80. Since the Romano Pontifici eligendo, a maximum of 120 cardinals can participate in a conclave; it is unclear how they will be chosen when the number of eligible cardinals exceeds 120.[5]

References

  1. ^ Toth, Albert. "What is a Conclave? Process to select a Pope explained as Francis undergoes hospital treatment". The Independent.
  2. ^ Thavis, John (February 2013). "Election of New Pope Follows Detailed Procedure". Catholic News Service. Archived from the original on 14 February 2013. Retrieved 21 February 2013.
  3. ^ Technically Nicholas II's In Nomine Domini bull of 1059 laid down that the electors could choose from "another church" if there was no suitable candidate within the Roman church.
  4. ^ a b c Oreglia, Carlo. "'Pressure to reach a quick decision': How the papal succession process works". SBS. Retrieved 28 February 2025.
  5. ^ "Here's how a conclave elects a new pope". CBC News. 19 February 2025. Retrieved 28 February 2025.
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