Opinion polling for the 2006 Portuguese presidential election

In the run up to the 2006 Portuguese presidential election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Portugal. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading candidate colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication.

Candidates vote

First round

Graphical summary

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.79/6/200511/22/20051/11/20061/22/2006Cavaco Silva (PSD)Mário Soares (PS)Manuel AlegreJerónimo de Sousa (PCP)Francisco Louçã (BE)Garcia Pereira (PCTP)OthersOpinion polling for the 2006 Portuguese pres...
View source data.

Polling

  Exit poll

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size 		Oth Lead
PSD PS Ind. CDU BE PCTP
Election results 22 Jan 2006 N/a 50.5 14.3 20.7 8.6 5.3 0.4
—
 29.8 over Alegre
UCP–CESOP 22 Jan 2006 ? 49–54 11–14 20–23 8–10 4–6 0–1
—
 30 over Alegre
Eurosondagem 22 Jan 2006 ? 50.4–54.6 12.5–16.3 17.7–21.5 6.4–8.6 4.1–6.3 0.5–1.1
—
 32.9 over Alegre
Intercampus 22 Jan 2006 ? 50.0–54.8 11.0–15.0 18.4–22.4 7.0–10.0 3.4–6.4 0.3–1.5
—
 32.0 over Alegre
Marktest 15–18 Jan 2006 1,416 53.0 12.4 20.6 7.0 6.5 0.5 N/a 32.4 over Alegre
Eurosondagem 15–18 Jan 2006 3,058 53.0 16.9 16.2 7.2 5.8 0.9 N/a 36.1 over Soares
Aximage 15–18 Jan 2006 1,003 52.5 15.4 19.5 6.5 5.5 0.8 N/a 33.0 over Alegre
UCP 14–15 Jan 2006 1,003 52 15 19 7 6 1 N/a 33 over Alegre
Marktest 12–15 Jan 2006 812 54.6 13.1 18.4 6.6 6.4 N/a 0.8 36.2 over Alegre
Marktest 9–11 Jan 2006 608 56.8 12.8 15.6 7.8 6.5 N/a 0.4 41.2 over Alegre
Pitagórica 9–11 Jan 2006 605 54.7 12.4 15.9 8.7 7.1 1.3 N/a 38.8 over Alegre
Intercampus 9–11 Jan 2006 1,010 52.4 17.0 17.4 6.9 5.8 0.4 N/a 35.0 over Alegre
Marktest 4–7 Jan 2006 608 61.0 14.3 11.5 6.9 6.1 N/a 0.3 46.7 over Soares
Aximage 3–5 Jan 2006 570 61 15 11 4 7 N/a 1 46 over Soares
UCP 3–4 Jan 2006 815 60 13 16 7 4 N/a 0 44 over Alegre
Eurosondagem 11–14 Dec 2005 2,069 55.5 20.4 12.5 5.7 4.8 N/a 1.1 35.1 over Soares
Aximage 30 Nov–2 Dec 2005 560 58 17 14 6 5 N/a 0 41 over Soares
GEMEO/IPAM 25 Nov–1 Dec 2005 600 63 15 16 3 3 N/a 0 47 over Alegre
Intercampus 20–24 Nov 2005 1,001 57 15 17 6 5 N/a 0 40 over Alegre
UCP 21–22 Nov 2005 805 57 16 17 5 4 N/a 1 40 over Alegre
Marktest 15–19 Nov 2005 801 56 13 19 6 6 N/a 0 37 over Alegre
Aximage 7–8 Nov 2005 544 58 12 19 6 4 N/a 1 39 over Alegre
Eurosondagem 3–8 Nov 2005 1,577 52.6 18.0 16.9 5.6 6.2 N/a 0.6 34.6 over Soares
Marktest 18–21 Oct 2005 805 58 12 16 5 6 N/a 2 42 over Alegre
Aximage 17–19 Oct 2005 582 62 11 17 4 3 N/a 2 45 over Alegre
Intercampus[a] 3–6 Oct 2005 1,004 52.6 18.1 18.9 4.2 6.2 N/a 0.0 33.7 over Alegre
Marktest 20–26 Sep 2005 803 48.6 14.5 10.6 4.2 6.0 N/a 15.8 34.1 over Soares
Aximage 17–18 Sep 2005 502 50.6 21.7 N/a 4.7 4.3 N/a 18.7 28.9 over Soares
45.9 18.4 13.5 3.5 2.8 N/a 15.9[b] 27.5 over Soares
UCP 9 Sep 2005 971 49 32 N/a 7 11 N/a 1 17 over Soares
Aximage 5–6 Sep 2005 600 53.4 36.2 N/a N/a N/a N/a 10.4 17.2 over Soares
Marktest 18–21 Jan 2005 801 39.5 9.2 N/a N/a N/a N/a 51.3[c] 28.0 over Guterres
Marktest 19–21 Oct 2004 813 35.8 6.4 N/a N/a N/a N/a 57.8[d] 19.1 over Guterres
Marktest 14–16 Sep 2004 808 39 8 N/a N/a N/a N/a 53[e] 24 over Guterres

Second round

Hypothetical polling
Polling firm Date conducted Sample
size 		Oth/
Und 		Lead
PSD Ind. PS PS PSD PSD
UCP 3–4 Jan 2006 815 63 37 N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 26
71 N/a 29 N/a N/a N/a N/a 42
UCP 21–22 Nov 2005 805 65 35 N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 30
72 N/a 28 N/a N/a N/a N/a 44
Marktest 18–21 Oct 2005 805 57.2 29.6 N/a N/a N/a N/a 13.2 27.6
60.0 N/a 21.6 N/a N/a N/a 18.4 38.4
Intercampus 3–6 Oct 2005 1,004 59.3 34.9 N/a N/a N/a N/a 5.8 24.4
64.9 N/a 33.7 N/a N/a N/a 1.4 31.2
Marktest 20–26 Sep 2005 803 58.2 25.4 N/a N/a N/a N/a 16.4 32.8
58.5 N/a 22.7 N/a N/a N/a 18.8 35.8
Aximage 17–18 Sep 2005 502 54.2 N/a 29.4 N/a N/a N/a 16.4 24.8
UCP 9 Sep 2005 971 64 N/a 36 N/a N/a N/a N/a 28
Marktest 18–21 Jan 2005 801 58.7 N/a N/a 27.9 N/a N/a 13.4 30.8
N/a N/a N/a 32 48 N/a 20 16
N/a N/a N/a 54 N/a 22 24 32

Notes

  1. ^ Results presented here exclude undecideds (12.7%). With their inclusion results are: Cavaco Silva: 45.9%; Manuel Alegre: 16.5%; Mário Soares: 15.8%; Francisco Louçã: 5.4%; Jerónimo de Sousa: 3.7%.
  2. ^ Paulo Portas: 3.2%.
  3. ^ António Guterres: 11.5%; Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa: 9.3%; Diogo Freitas do Amaral: 5.6%; João Bosco Mota Amaral: 3.0%; Pedro Santana Lopes: 2.5%; Jaime Gama: 2.1%; João Soares: 0.8%.
  4. ^ António Guterres: 16.7%; Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa: 12.8%; Diogo Freitas do Amaral: 2.5%; João Bosco Mota Amaral: 1.9%; Jaime Gama: 1.4%; João Soares: 1.1%.
  5. ^ António Guterres: 15%; Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa: 13%; Diogo Freitas do Amaral: 3%; João Bosco Mota Amaral: 2%; Jaime Gama: 2%; João Soares: 1%.
allikas: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2006_Portuguese_presidential_election