Template:Future election

Elections for the United States Senate are being held, today, November 7, 2006, with 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate being contested. Senators are elected for six-year terms, with one third of the Senate seats up for a vote every two years. The term of office for those elected in 2006 will be from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2013. Senators who were elected in 2000 (known as "Class 1") will be seeking reelection or retiring in 2006.

The 2006 House election is scheduled for the same date as the Senate election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.

The Senate is currently composed of 55 Republicans, who have been in the majority since 2003, 44 Democrats, and one Democratic-leaning Independent (former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont). Jeffords is retiring and his seat is one of the 33 seats being contested, while another 17 are held by Democrats and 15 are held by Republicans.

To control 51 seats, a majority in the Senate, Democrats would need a net gain of six seats (as long as independent candidate Bernie Sanders wins Jeffords' seat in Vermont and continues to caucus with the Democrats as he does in the House). Republicans need to hold only 50 seats after the election to have a majority because the Vice President (currently Republican Dick Cheney) breaks all tie votes in his role as President of the Senate.

Below is a table summarizing various non-partisan election analyses. Although the nomenclature varies slightly, the categories can be understood as follows:
"Safe" -- the race is not expected to become competitive.
"Favored" -- the race is currently not competitive, but may become competitive if new political factors intervene.
"Leans" -- the race is competitive, but one candidate has a clear advantage.
"Tossup" -- neither candidate has a clear advantage.

The ratings below are current as of November 6 2006.

Races where one party is considered "Safe" by all sources are not included in the table. Currently these include:
SAFE DEMOCRATIC:
California, Connecticut*, Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, West Virginia, Wisconsin
SAFE REPUBLICAN:
Indiana, Maine, Mississippi, Texas, Utah, Wyoming

Also not included in the table are the 27 Democratic and 40 Republican seats not up for election this year.

Blue=Seats held by Democrats, or Independents who caucused with Democrats, prior to 2006 election
Red=Seats held by Republicans prior to 2006 election
*=Will caucus with Democrats despite leading candidate not running as a Democratic Party candidate
1=TradeSports does not have named categories, but instead gives percentage chances of a given outcome, based on what the market will bear. "Safe" races are those were one candidate is given a 90% or more chance to win, "favored" are those where a candidate is given a 67% or more chance to win, "leans" are those where one candidate is favored by at least 55%, and "tossup" are those where neither candidate has 55%.

TradeSports offers a contract on the Republicans retaining control of the Senate. On Tuesday, November 7 at 9:57:53AM GMT it was indicating a probability of 68% of the Republicans retaining the Senate. ^[1]

Iowa Electronic Markets offers three contracts covering the outcome of the Senate elections:^[2]

• Republicans hold more than their current 55 Senate seats
• Republicans hold 50 to 55 Senate seats (with the Republican Vice President as a tiebreaker)
• Republicans hold fewer than 50 Senate seats

As of Tuesday, November 7, 2006 at 7:15 AM GMT, the two contracts predicting Republican control of the Senate were trading at an average of $0.006 and $0.712, respectively. Adding these values results in a 71.8% probability of Republicans retaining control of the Senate. ^[3]

On February 9, 2005, Senator Dayton announced that he would not seek a second term in the Senate. Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar is the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) nominee.

Republican Representative Mark Kennedy secured major GOP endorsements in early 2005 and defeated nominal opposition in the primary. Kennedy has benefited from high-profile Republicans coming to do fundraisers for him, including Vice President Dick Cheney in July 2005 and President George W. Bush in December 2005. An October 30th Mason-Dixon poll, Klobuchar leads Kennedy 50% to 40% [1].

Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee, the current Majority Leader, has previously promised to leave the Senate when his second term ends in January 2007, and is widely considered to have presidential aspirations for 2008.

Although Tennessee's electoral votes went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, a majority of the state offices are held by Democrats. Tennessee also has more registered Democratic voters than Republican voters and is one of two states in the south to send more Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives than Republicans, the other being Arkansas.

The Democratic nominee is Representative Harold Ford, Jr. and the Republican nominee is Bob Corker, both of whom won primaries on August 3. Corker, former mayor of Chattanooga and 1994 Senate candidate, is well funded and advertised heavily in the western portion of the state during his primary campaign, where he was relatively unknown before this race. Ford currently represents Tennessee's 9th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives. Like Corker, Ford has shown exceptional fundraising prowess, and the race promises to be an expensive one for both parties.

The candidates have exchanged leads in the polls, and there have been a number of negative charges. Ford has attacked Corker's business dealings and pulled ahead for a while. Corker portrays Ford as a hyper-political Washington insider with nothing in common with Tennessee residents. He points out that Ford never passed the bar exam even though he calls himself a lawyer. The campaign made headlines when the Republican National Committee ran an ad which, among other things, ridiculed Ford for attending a party thrown by the Playboy corporation. It featured a fictional blond Playboy Bunny squealing, "I met Harold at the Playboy Party!" and then winking and saying, "Harold, call me." Ford and Democrats called the ad an attempt to play on racial prejudice, and Corker distanced himself from the ad.

A November 5th Rasmussen Reports poll has Corker leading Ford 51% to 47%. Rasmussen Reports is now switching this race to Toss-Up [2].

Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont left the Republican Party to become an independent soon after being reelected as a Republican in the 2000 election. On April 20, 2005, he declared he would not seek another term. The national Democratic Party put independent and democratic socialist Representative Bernie Sanders on their party's ballot in order to keep other Democrats from having a possible "spoiler" effect on the general election results. Sanders won both the Democratic line and an independent line on the ballot.

Rich Tarrant is the Republican nominee, after having won the primary election on September 12.

Sanders, a popular political figure in Vermont, is expected to easily win the election.

Senator Paul Sarbanes announced on March 11 2005 that he would retire rather than run for re-election in 2006. Sarbanes' seat was previously considered safe, as Maryland is a Democratic-leaning state. Representative Ben Cardin bested former Representative and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume and others in the Democratic primary. Current Lieutenant Governor Michael S. Steele, a Republican, announced his candidacy on October 25, 2005, and won the Republican nomination over token opposition. Attorney Kevin Zeese has received the nomination of the Populist, Green and Libertarian Parties, but, according to Maryland law, will appear on the ballot as a Green. Democrats have a natural advantage in Maryland, with its large number of African-American voters and government workers, but Steele's personal popularity and potential appeal with his fellow blacks keeps the race competitive.

An October 26th Rasmussen Reports poll shows Cardin leading Steele 49% to 42% [3]. An October 30th Reuters/Zogby poll has Cardin leading Steele 49% to 44% [4]. A November 2nd SurveyUSA poll has Cardin and Steele tied at 47% with 4% undecided [5].

In 2000, wealthy Internet executive and former Congresswoman Maria Cantwell unseated then-Senator Slade Gorton by some 2,200 votes, the smallest margin in state history, after spending a portion of her personal fortune. She has drawn fire from liberals in Washington for some of her votes, including her vote for the Iraq War Resolution, for the confirmation of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and against the attempted filibuster of Samuel Alito. Mark Wilson and Hong Tran filed as primary challengers because of these votes. In 2005 she voiced support in Washington State Democratic Party circles for the John Murtha Resolution on redeploying American armed forces from Iraq. In early July, Wilson announced that he will pull out of the race, endorse Cantwell, and campaign full time on her behalf, after Maria Cantwell offered him a salary of $8000 a month.^[4]

Former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick is the GOP candidate supported by the chairwoman of the Washington State Republican Party, Diane Tebelius. He was once Gorton's Chief of Staff and is believed to have similar moderate-to-conservative politics. The other announced Republican candidates for the Senate seat are paralegal C. Mark Greene, and police officer and minister Brad Klippert.

On March 9 2006, Aaron Dixon, former captain of the Seattle chapter of the Black Panther Party announced his intention to seek the Green Party's nomination for U.S. Senate, challenging Senator Cantwell on her continued support for the U.S. presence in Iraq and the USA PATRIOT Act. The Libertarian Party nominated Western Washington University business instructor Bruce Guthrie as its candidate in April.

In the September 19 primary, Cantwell won the Democratic nomination with over 90% of the Democratic vote and McGavick won the Republican nomination with over 85% of the vote.^[5] This sets up a general election challenge between Cantwell, McGavick, Green Party nominee Aaron Dixon, Libertarian nominee Bruce Guthrie, and independent Robin Adair.

Both major party candidates have been embarrassed by bad press. McGavick was forced to admit that he was arrested for drunk driving in 1993, and it was revealed that his confession left out some relevant details. He stated that he was stopped by police and cited for drunk driving when he "cut a yellow light too close". The police report states the officer observed a car "drive through a steady red signal". There are also discrepancies involving details of the aftermath of this event, including whether or not McGavick was taken into custody. [6]. A short time later, Cantwell was put on the defensive when it was revealed that she had steered over $11 million in federal money in the past year for projects benefiting clients of a lobbyist, Ron Dotzauer, a former campaign advisor of Cantwell's. At issue is a $15,000- $50,000 loan Cantwell made to Dotzauer that is as yet unpaid. [7].

The latest polls from Mason-Dixon, Rasmussen Reports, SurveyUSA, and the University of Washington have Cantwell leading McGavick by 15, 11, 13, and 12, respectively. [8] [9] [10] [11]

Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut was originally thought to be a shoo-in, but his reelection prospects have been complicated by political cross-currents. Lieberman has drawn fire from the more anti-war elements within his party for his continual support for the foreign policy of President George W. Bush and for statements in which he has criticized other Democrats for "undermining the President" during a time of war. Greenwich telecom-networking businessman Ned Lamont declared his candidacy for the Democratic nomination in March, and went on to receive 33.4% of the nomination vote at the Democratic state convention in May, more than twice the 15% needed to force a primary.

Lamont defeated Lieberman for the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary (Lamont 51.8%; Lieberman 48.2%). Lieberman has decided to remain in the race as a "petitioning candidate,"^[6] having announced on July 3, 2006 that he would begin collecting the necessary signatures to run as an independent in the event he loses the primary.^[7] He has also filed to create a new independent party, "Connecticut for Lieberman."

Challenging Lamont and Lieberman in the general election is Republican Alan Schlesinger, former mayor of Derby and a former state Representative. Schlesinger has a history of winning crossover Democratic voters, but has never run in a large constituency. Schlesinger was recently embarrassed when it was revealed that he was thrown out of a casino for counting cards under an assumed name, leading to speculation that he may withdraw from the race.^[8]

Polls for the general election have yielded mixed results, often fluctuating back and forth between showing the race as a statistical dead heat and showing Lieberman with sizable leads. An illustration of this can be found here[12].

Regardless of who wins, both Lamont and Lieberman have announced their intention to caucus with the Democrats; therefore, the outcome of this race will not immediately affect the final tally of Senate seats by party; Lieberman has suggested that he may withdraw from the caucus if his seniority is not respected.

Jon Corzine, elected to the Senate in 2000, was elected Governor of New Jersey in 2005. Corzine appointed Rep. Robert Menendez to serve the last year of the Senate term, and Menendez was sworn in to fill Corzine's vacancy on January 18 2006.^[9] Republican State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr. (the son of former Governor and 9/11 Commission Chairman Thomas Kean) announced on March 25 2005 that he would run for the U.S. Senate. Both nominees have problems within their own parties; Menendez has alienated many fellow Democrats with his aggressiveness and abrasiveness, while Kean is unpopular with party conservatives who consider him to be too liberal. Menendez has an approval rating of 38%, which may be a sign of vulnerability for the incumbent, especially since his disapproval is at 50%[13]. Although incumbents with under 50% ratings in polls are generally considered vulnerable, this standard perhaps doesn't apply to Menendez as he was appointed just recently and is not well known state-wide, a far different situation from most incumbents. President George W. Bush is highly unpopular in the state, but Governor Corzine's early performance in office has met with widespread disapproval, contributing to the large number of undecided voters. The campaign has become increasingly aggressive, with Menendez calling Kean a Bush lackey while Kean repeatedly attacks Menendez as corrupt.

An October 16th Zogby poll has Kean leading Menendez 47% to 45% [14]. An October 23rd LA Times/Bloomberg poll has Menendez leading Kean 45% to 41% [15]. A new Rasmussen Reports poll from October 25th has Kean leading Menendez 43% to 41% [16]. A November 2nd poll by Zogby/Reuters showed a 49% to 37% Menendez lead[17]. Another November 2nd poll by Rutgers showed Menendez up 46% to 42%[18] and a third by Public Mind showed a 48% to 38% Menendez edge [19]. A November 3rd poll by [Rasmussen] showed a 48% to 43% Menendez lead [20]. A Monmouth University November 3rd has Menendez leading Kean 45% to 42% with 10% undecided [21].

In 2000, then-Congresswoman Debbie Stabenow unseated Spencer Abraham by a 50% to 48% margin after trailing during much of the campaign. This year, she is thought to be secure, with George W. Bush's popularity falling, and well-known Republicans backing away from running. Her opponent is Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, a former state legislator. In the August primary, he defeated former Detroit City Councilman Keith Butler by 61% to 39%. Michigan is home to many "Reagan Democrats" and voters are highly dissatisfied with the economy. Bouchard has begun to gain in the polls, although Stabenow remains the marginal favorite. Stabenow claims that the bad local economy is the fault of the Bush administration, while Bouchard and Republicans claim that Stabenow is ineffective and has accomplished very little. Bush is highly unpopular in Michigan, but Stabenow, while still the front-runner, posts unimpressive approval ratings.

A November 4th SurveyUSA poll has Stabenow leading Bouchard 52% to 42% [22].

Senator George Allen of Virginia is a potential 2008 presidential candidate, a possibility that has likely been harmed by his tough race for re-election in 2006. Former Secretary of the Navy and decorated combat veteran James H. Webb is the Democratic nominee. Retired Air Force officer Gail Parker is the Independent Green party candidate.

This has become the most bitter U.S. Senate campaign of the year. Allen's approval rating has dropped to 47% in most recent polling, due in part to a series of embarrassing incidents during the campaign. In mid-August at a campaign stop in southwest Virginia, Allen called S.R. Sidarth, a Webb volunteer of Indian descent, "macaca" and welcomed him to America, although he was born in Virginia.^[10] Controversy surrounding Allen continued into September following his reaction to questions about his Jewish heritage.^[11] Additional reports surfaced in late September that Allen uttered the nigger epithet on a frequent basis while a student at University of Virginia, according to former college football teammates.^[12] Allen fired back by pointing out remarks that Webb made during the 1980's that were demeaning to female veterans. He struck again when he released excerpts of graphic sexual scenes from some of the books Webb had penned, portraying the writing as misogynistic and pornography. Webb angrily claimed these were based on events that he personally witnessed while in the military.

An October 30th Reuters/Zogby poll has Webb leading Allen 45% to 44% [23]. A November 2nd Rasmussen Reports poll has have Allen and Webb tied at 49% [24]. A November 3rd Mason-Dixon poll has Webb leading Allen 46% to 45% with 7% undecided [25].

Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from current Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by a mere 3% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal, made this a highly competitive race. Burns faces Democratic primary winner and state Senate President Jon Tester, an organic farmer from Big Sandy.

Burns has long had a history of verbal missteps, and this year is no exception. On July 27, he was forced to apologize after he verbally attacked out of state firefighters who were preparing to leave Montana after helping contain a summer forest fire and directly questioned their competence and skill; Burns was strongly criticized.^[13]

For much of the campaign, Tester lead by substantial margins. But Burns has narrowed the gap by attacking Tester as a liberal extremist. A November 2nd Mason-Dixon poll has Tester and Burns tied at 47% with 5% undecided [26]. A November 4th Rasmussen Reports poll has Tester leading Burns 50% to 48% [27].

Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island faced a primary challenge from conservative Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. In a September 12 primary, Chafee defeated Laffey by a 54% to 46% margin ^[14]. The Democratic candidate is former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, who narrowly lost the 2004 Democratic primary for Governor.

The Chafee/Laffey primary was contentious. Laffey ran as a conservative, but came under fire from other conservatives for supporting tax increases as Mayor and increasing city spending. It was widely believed that the more liberal Chafee would have an easier time winning in the general election due to his appeal to Independent voters.^{[citation needed]} Chafee, however, may be damaged by the contentious primary that could potentially alienate Republican voters and give the Democratic nominee an advantage. Laffey received support from the conservative Club for Growth interest group. Although he is the most liberal Republican in the Senate and has been repeatedly accused of being a RINO by members of his own party, the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee spent a large amount of money backing Chafee, and, in an unprecedented move, announced that they would abandon the race if Laffey won. Nevertheless, Laffey has endorsed Chafee for reelection.

By far the most liberal Republican in Congress, Chafee faces a complicated situation. He is unpopular with conservative Republicans whose votes he needs to win, yet represents a heavily Democratic constituency which overwhelmingly disapproves of George W. Bush. As a liberal Democrat running in a liberal, Democratic stronghold, Whitehouse faces no such problems, though he is seen in some quarters as a career bureaucrat and professional political insider. The Whitehouse campaign has sought to characterize the election as a referendum on Bush and the Republican Congress. The tactic seems to be working, and recently, Chafee has attacked Whitehouse's record as a prosecutor, claiming that he allowed corruption and scandal to flourish unchecked.

Polls show a close race, with Whitehouse holding the lead. A September 18 poll by Brown University gives Whitehouse a statistically insignificant lead of 40% to 39% [28]. An October 14 poll by Fleming and Associates shows Whitehouse leading by 46% to 42% [29]. An October 20th Mason-Dixon poll has Whitehouse leading Chafee 48% to 43% with 9% undecided [30]. An October 24 poll by Rasmussen Reports gives Whitehouse a lead of 50% to 42% [31]. An October 27th poll by Rhode Island College shows a 43% to 33% Whitehouse lead [32]. A November 2nd Zogby/Reuters poll shows a 53% to 39% Whitehouse lead[33].

Senator Mike DeWine of Ohio has uninspiring approval ratings and the current Coingate scandal involving the Ohio Republican Party and the widespread unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft could hurt his re-election chances. DeWine faced primary challenges from several more conservative Republicans, such as William G. Pierce, who are unhappy with his relatively centrist stances including his role as one of the Gang of 14 who intervened to stop a showdown over judicial nominations. Lawyer and Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, who narrowly lost to Jean Schmidt in the second district on August 2 2005, said in October 2005 he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge DeWine. U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown announced his candidacy in October 2005. Hackett withdrew from the race on February 14 2006. Both DeWine and Brown won their primaries easily. An October 12th Rasmussen Reports poll has Brown leading DeWine 46% to 41% [34]. An October 30th Reuters/Zogby poll has Brown leading DeWine 49% to 42% [35]. A Rasmussen poll released November 4th shows Brown pulling away from Dewine with a 53% to 41% lead [36].

Wealthy real-estate developer Jim Pederson declared his intention to challenge Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona on September 14 2005. Pederson served as Arizona Democratic Party Chairman from 2001 to 2005 while spending millions of his own money to help Democrats modernize and to elect Janet Napolitano governor. Kyl got an unexpected boost when TIME listed him as one of the Ten Best Senators.

A new Rasmussen Reports poll from October 15th has Kyl leading Pederson 51% to 42% [37]. A November 2nd SurveyUSA poll has Kyl leading Pederson 53% to 40% [38].

Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, the third-highest ranking member of the Republican caucus, is the Democrats' top target in 2006. He's a very conservative member of the Senate in a state that went for John Kerry in 2004 by 2.5 percent. In his last election in the year 2000, Santorum received 7,706 more votes than Al Gore, the Democratic candidate for President, who won Pennsylvania by 4.5 percent.^[15] Santorum ran against U.S. Rep. Ron Klink, a pro-life Democrat who wasn't supported by party contributors and was heavily outspent. Democrats believe that Santorum's seat is extremely vulnerable and are making it a priority for a pick-up in 2006. Popular state Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr. is the Democratic nominee and is fully supported by the party establishment, notwithstanding that, like Santorum, Casey is pro-life.

Santorum also has not benefited from his recent ultraconservative book, It Takes a Family, which criticises public schools and questions whether or not both parents in a family should work, alleging that women who work are making a selfish decision and only do so because they find it "empowering". This stance has been seized on by the Casey campaign as proof that Santorum is too conservative for mainstream voters. Santorum also suffered from controversy last year when he was criticized for sending his three children to a Pennsylvania charter school using taxpayer dollars while listing his primary residence out-of-state. Although the senator has long since withdrawn his children from the school, the issue has further added to his baggage in his quest for re-election.

No longer a factor in the race is former Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli. It was believed that, had he appeared on the ballot, Romanelli would have siphoned votes away from more liberal Democratic voters who oppose Casey's stance on abortion, making the race more competitive in Santorum's favor. Romanelli got on the ballot after a massive petition drive "aided by Republicans who bankrolled the effort and Santorum campaign staffers who assisted with the legwork." ^[16] However, Democrats challenged the petitions, and on September 25, a state Commonwealth Court judge found that there were not enough valid signatures to meet the 67,070 requirement to allow Romanelli to be on the ballot.^[17] Romanelli had a separate court action challenging the validity of the threshold, but this was rejected as well by the state Supreme Court on October 3. ^[18]

Polls had shown Casey leading Santorum by 15 to 20 points, but the margin slipped in August and early September. However, most polls since then have shown that Casey has regained a double-digit lead.

Senator Jim Talent of Missouri, who was elected to the four remaining years of this term in a 2002 special election, faces a strong Democratic challenge for his seat. Missouri will not hold an election for governor in 2006, making this the only major statewide race in a traditional battleground state. Talent was first elected by a very slim margin and now has a well-known challenger in state Auditor Claire McCaskill, a former Jackson County (Kansas City and suburbs) Prosecutor and the 2004 Democratic Gubernatorial nominee. Missouri is considered a "swing" state. McCaskill carries some political baggage from her 2004 loss. However, Talent was elected to the Senate after a near-successful gubernatorial bid, the same position McCaskill is in now. McCaskill has also gone out of her way to appeal to rural, mainstream voters and actively fought the perception of a "city slicker" which contributes to the defeat of most Missouri Democrats. She has also benefited from talking up her position in support of stem cell research, which most Missourians support but which Talent opposes. Her campaign has vigorously criticized Talent's record, the most recent ad featuring an appearance from actor Michael J. Fox. Talent has recently responded in kind, accusing McCaskill of being deceitful about her personal tax returns.

The race is among the most competitive in the nation. The most recent Mason-Dixon, USA Today/Gallup, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA polls show McCaskill by 1, McCaskill by 4, Talent by 1, and McCaskill by 6, respectively. [39] [40] [41] [42]

Party key: (D/DFL/D-NPL) Democratic/Democratic-Farmer-Labor/Democratic-NPL, (R) Republican, (AIP) American Independent, (BH) Being Human, (CFL) Connecticut for Lieberman, (CC) Concerened Citizens, (Con) Conservative (NY), (C) Constitution, (G) Green, (IAP) Independent American, (IG) Independent Green Party of Virginia, (IPM) Independence Party of Minnesota, (IPNY) Independence Party of New York, (L) Libertarian, (LU) Liberty Union, (M) Marijuana, (Mt) Mountain Party, (PFP) Peace and Freedom, (PC) Personal Choice, (Pop) Populist Party of Maryland, (S) Socialist, (SA) Socialist Action, (SE) Socialist Equality, (SW) Socialist Workers, (WF) Working Families, (I) Independent

• United States House elections, 2006
• United States gubernatorial elections, 2006
• United States presidential election, 2008

• 2006 Election Guide The New York Times
• 2006 Election Projections Survey
• 2006 Senate Election-MIT Statistical Analysis