Peter Henry Zeihan (/ˈzaɪ.ən/; born January 18, 1973) is an American geopolitical analyst and author. He previously worked as a geopolitical intelligence analyst at Stratfor.[1][2][3] Zeihan is the author of several books focusing on geopolitics and globalization, including The Absent Superpower (2017), Disunited Nations (2020), and The End of the World Is Just the Beginning (2022).[4][5]

Early life and education

Zeihan was born in 1973,[6] and grew up as the adopted son of educators Jerald and Agnes Zeihan in Marshalltown, Iowa. He graduated from Marshalltown High School in 1992.[1] In 1995, he earned a BS in political science at Northeast Missouri State University and in 1997 a postgraduate diploma in Asian studies at the University of Otago in New Zealand.[7] He also attended the University of Kentucky's Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce focusing on political and economic development.[8][9]

Career

After completing his education, Zeihan worked for the American embassy in Australia and at the Center for Political and Strategic Studies, a think tank founded by Susan Eisenhower.

Stratfor

In 2000, he joined the Austin, Texas-based geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor as an analyst, where he worked for 12 years, eventually becoming vice president.[1][2][3]

Zeihan left Stratfor in 2012 and founded Zeihan on Geopolitics, a consulting firm. His clients have included energy companies, financial institutions, business associations, agricultural organizations, universities, and government entities.[10]

Writings

While still at Stratfor, Zeihan co-authored his first book, A Crucible of Nations, with Lauren Goodrich in 2011.

In 2014 he released The Accidental Superpower,[11] which examines the impact of geography on a state's economic, industrial, and military competitiveness. The book discusses the strategic advantages of navigable rivers, ocean access, and transportation infrastructure, alongside demographic projections. It was reviewed by The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and Kirkus Reviews.[2][12][13] Using maps, Zeihan discusses the critical importance of navigable rivers, access to oceans, and reliable road and rail networks. The Accidental Superpower also uses demographic calculations of national populations to forecast how different countries will maintain an edge in the geopolitical future.[14] He has since published additional books about the same topics.[15]

Online presence

Zeihan currently operates a YouTube channel and a crowdfunding platform via Patreon, where he releases videos discussing geopolitics, economics, and global affairs.[16][17]

Publications

Criticism of Zeihan’s Analysis

Critics of Peter Zeihan’s analysis argue that while his assessments are supported by strong arguments and data,[18] they often take a deterministic approach to demographic and geopolitical trends.[19][20][21] Some scholars contend that this perspective underestimates other significant factors, such as technological advancements, geopolitical shifts, and socio-cultural changes.[19]

A common critique is that Zeihan’s scenarios assume inevitability, disregarding the unpredictability of global events and technological innovation.[19] This perspective bears similarities to Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian theories, which historically underestimated the role of technological and social innovation disrupting their predictions developed by the very societies they analyzed.[22]

Some analysts argue that Zeihan does not fully account for factors like increased longevity and productivity, particularly in his assessments of economic and demographic sustainability.[19] For instance, his projections regarding China’s decline have been criticized for not considering potential reforms in pension systems and government fiscal policies.[21]

Additionally, Zeihan’s analysis has been described as heavily U.S.-centric, often emphasizing American advantages while downplaying the strengths of other nations.[20]

In the 2023 update of his book The Accidental Superpower, Zeihan added an appendix to each chapter of the original 2013 edition, evaluating the accuracy of his earlier predictions. Among other notes, he acknowledged that he underestimated the role of Canadian national identity in Alberta’s political alignment and overestimated Russia’s military capabilities.[23]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c Maharry, Robert (May 10, 2022). "Marshalltown native prepares to publish fourth book on geopolitics, demography". Times Republican. Retrieved March 10, 2023.
  2. ^ a b c Denning, Liam (December 3, 2014). "The Coming Hobbesian World." Review of The Accidental Superpower, by Peter Zeihan. Wall Street Journal. Retrieved December 3, 2014.
  3. ^ a b Immerwahr, Daniel (November 10, 2022). "Are we really prisoners of geography?". The Guardian. Retrieved November 16, 2022.
  4. ^ "Pen and Sword: Disunited Nations, with Peter Zeihan (podcast)". Stratfor. April 2, 2020. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
  5. ^ Whittemore, Nathaniel (April 1, 2020). "How Coronavirus Is Accelerating the End of Globalism, Feat. Peter Zeihan". finance.yahoo.com. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
  6. ^ "Executive Profile – Zeihan on Geopolitics – Peter Zeihan – Customer Intelligence". www.boardroominsiders.com. Archived from the original on January 11, 2018. Retrieved January 11, 2018.
  7. ^ "Peter Zeihan".
  8. ^ "Peter Zeihan - Zeihan on Geopolitics | LinkedIn". www.linkedin.com. Archived from the original on March 10, 2025. Retrieved March 13, 2025.
  9. ^ "Peter Zeihan - September 26, 2023 | Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce". pattersonschool.uky.edu. Retrieved March 13, 2025.
  10. ^ "Peter Zeihan – Geopolitics Speaker & Strategist". National Speakers Bureau. July 20, 2022. Retrieved February 11, 2023.
  11. ^ Zeihan, Peter (2014). The accidental superpower: the next generation of American preeminence and the coming global disaster (1 ed.). New York, NY: Twelve. ISBN 978-1-4555-8366-9.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  12. ^ Zakaria, Fareed. "America's prospects are promising indeed". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 20, 2014.
  13. ^ The Accidental Superpower by Peter Zeihan. Kirkus Reviews.
  14. ^ Ikenberry, G. John (February 16, 2015). "The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder". Foreign Affairs. No. March/April 2015. ISSN 0015-7120. Retrieved October 20, 2023.
  15. ^ "Peter Zeihan". www.goodreads.com. Retrieved February 22, 2025.
  16. ^ "Zeihan on Geopolitics". YouTube. Retrieved February 22, 2025.
  17. ^ "Peter Zeihan". Patreon. Retrieved February 22, 2025.
  18. ^ "The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization By Peter Zeihan". The Independent Review. 27 (4).
  19. ^ a b c d Galjak, Marko (July 10, 2023). "Peter Zeihan: The End of the World Is Just the Beginning - Mapping the Collapse of Globalization". Stanovnistvo. 61 (1): 115–119. doi:10.59954/stnv.516. ISSN 2217-3986.
  20. ^ a b Engle, Eric, The End of the World (Peter Zeihan) Is Wrong: Here’s Why. (Book Review) (December 27, 2022). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4312895
  21. ^ a b Money & Macro (October 31, 2023). Economist Fact-Checks Zeihan's China Collapse Story. Retrieved February 22, 2025 – via YouTube.
  22. ^ Pinker, Steven (2019). Enlightenment now: the case for reason, science, humanism and progress. New York: Penguin Books. ISBN 978-0-525-42757-5.
  23. ^ Zeihan, Peter (2023). The accidental superpower: ten years on. New York: Twelve. ISBN 978-1-5387-6734-4.
Allikas: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Zeihan
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