Since the 2022 Brazilian general election, polling companies have published surveys tracking voting intention for the 2026 Brazilian general election. The results of these surveys are listed below in reverse chronological order and include candidates who frequently polled above 3% and are registered in a party as well elegible by the Superior Electoral Court of Brazil.

Pre-campaign period

2025

First round

Polling firm Polling period Lula
Freitas
Bolsonaro
Gomes
Zema
Caiado
Others
[a]
Blank
Null
Undec.
[b]
Margin of error
[c]
Sample size Lead Link
Datafolha 1–3 Apr 2025 35 15 11 3 2 18 14 ±2 pp 3,054 20 [1]
35 15 12 4 3 18 12 20
AtlasIntel 24–27 Feb 2025 41.6 32.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 12.6 ±1 pp 5,710 9.3 [2]
CNT 19–23 Feb 2025 30.4 14 14.3 3.9 3.9 13.2 20.2 ±2.2 pp 2,002 16.1 [3]
Paraná Pesquisas 13–16 Feb 2025 34.1 27.2 9 4.7 13.1 12 ±2.2 pp 2,100 6.9 [4]
Quaest 23–26 Jan 2025 30 13 9 3 3 23 19 ±1 pp 4,500 17 [5]

Second round

Polling firm Polling period Lula
Freitas
Bolsonaro
Zema
Caiado
Blank
Null
Undec.
[b]
Margin of error
[c]
Sample size Lead Link
Quaest 27–31 Mar 2025 43 37 20 ±2 pp 2,004 6 [6]
44 38 18 6
AtlasIntel 20–24 Mar 2025 46 47 7 ±1 pp 4,659 1 [7]
Futura Inteligência 19–22 Mar 2025 37.6 42.3 20.1 ±3.1 pp 1,000 4.7 [8]
AtlasIntel 24–27 Feb 2025 47 49 4 ±1 pp 5,710 2 [2]
Paraná Pesquisas 13–16 Feb 2025 40.5 42.9 16.6 ±2.2 pp 2,100 2.4 [9]
41.1 40.8 18.1 0.3
AtlasIntel 27–31 Jan 2025 45.7 44.7 9.6 ±2 pp 3,125 1 [10]
47.4 36.5 16.1 10.9
Quaest 23–26 Jan 2025 43 34 23 ±1 pp 4,500 9 [11]
45 28 27 17
45 26 29 19

2024

First round

Polling firm Polling period Lula
Haddad
Freitas
J. Bolsonaro[d]
Marçal[d]
M. Bolsonaro
Gomes
Zema
Ratinho
Moro
Caiado
Leite
Barbalho
Tebet
Cristina
Blank
Null
Undec.
[b]
Margin of error
[c]
Sample size Lead Link
Paraná Pesquisas 21–25 Nov 2024 33.6 37.6 7.9 3.7 7.7 9.6 2,014 4 [12]
34.2 27.5 10.2 6.4 8.2 13.5 6.7
34.7 24.1 11.5 5.3 8.4 16.1 10.6
34.4 12.8 15.3 8.9 8.7 19.9 19.1
34.7 13.4 12.2 8 9.5 22.2 21.3
14.5 38.3 14.2 4.4 13 15.6 23.8
14.9 27.6 17 7.1 13.5 19.9 10.6
CNT 7–10 Nov 2024 35.2 32.2 8.4 6.2 8 10 ±2.2 pp 2,002 3 [13]
34.1 14.1 20.5 9.3 9.2 12.8 13.6
35.2 15 16.9 9.4 9.5 14 18.3
Paraná Pesquisas 18–22 Jul 2024 38.3 36.9 7.9 3 1.9 0.5 11.6 ±2.2 pp 2,026 1.4 [14]
38.7 30.3 9.1 4.5 2.3 0.6 14.5 8.4
38.9 24.4 11.8 4 2.7 0.6 17.6 14.5
39 12.4 14.2 7.5 3.3 0.7 22.8 24.8
38.8 13.3 13.1 6.7 3.5 0.8 23.9 25.5
Quaest 2–6 May 2024 46 40 14 ±2.2 pp 2,045 6 [15]
Paraná Pesquisas 27 Apr – 1 May 2024 36 38.8 8.4 3.4 1.0 12.3 ±2.2 pp 2,020 2.8 [16]
36.6 33 10.1 3.8 1.4 15.0 3.6
36.9 25.6 11.8 3.8 1.3 20.7 11.3
37.2 14.7 10.9 5.6 1.7 29.8 22.5
36.9 15.2 6.5 1.9 15.2 31.0 21.7
36.3 13.8 17.6 4.9 1.6 25.9 18.7
37.2 14.8 14.9 5.1 1.8 26.3 22.3
Paraná Pesquisas 24–28 Jan 2024 37.6 23 9.3 6.5 5.1 1.9 0.9 15.6 ±3.4 pp 2,026 14.6 [17]
37.4 17.4 10.3 5.8 6.2 2.1 1.1 19.6 20
36.9 33.8 7.8 3.9 3.9 1.2 0.8 11.7 3.1
Paraná Pesquisas 29 Sep – 3 Oct 2023 36.6 12.7 6.3 5.7 4.6 6.7 1.2 2.1 7.4 1.9 14.9 ±2.2 pp 2,020 23.9 [18]
37.6 18.9 8.7 3.7 9.0 22.2 18.7
37.6 8.8 15.3 4.0 8.8 25.5 22.3
37.7 9.2 12.8 4.1 8.7 27.4 24.9

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Refers to the total for other eligible and ineligible candidates, not registered in a party and that did not frequently polled above 3%.
  2. ^ a b c Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters.
  3. ^ a b c In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  4. ^ a b Ineligible.

References

  1. ^ "Datafolha: Lula venceria Bolsonaro e demais nomes da direita se eleição fosse hoje". Folha de S.Paulo (in Portuguese). 5 April 2025.
  2. ^ a b "Atlas: Lula lidera no 1º turno, mas empata tecnicamente com Tarcísio no 2º turno". UOL (in Portuguese). 7 March 2025.
  3. ^ "Lula tem 30,3% e Bolsonaro, 30,1% em simulação eleitoral, diz CNT/MD". CNN Brazil (in Portuguese). 18 February 2025.
  4. ^ "Paraná Pesquisas: sem Bolsonaro, quem é mais competitivo contra Lula?". Veja (in Portuguese). 18 February 2025.
  5. ^ "Quaest para presidente: Lula tem 30%; Tarcísio, 13%; e Gusttavo Lima, 12%". CNN (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 3 January 2025.
  6. ^ "Lula e Bolsonaro empatam, e presidente vence outros 7 candidatos em cenários de 2º turno em 2026, aponta Quaest". G1 (in Portuguese). Retrieved 3 April 2025.
  7. ^ Salles Barros, Henrique. "Lula, Tarcísio, Bolsonaro, Marçal: pesquisa Atlas simula 2° turno para 2026". CNN Brasil (in Portuguese). Retrieved 1 April 2025.
  8. ^ Porto, Douglas. "Pesquisa Futura: Tarcísio tem 42,3% e Lula, 37,6% em simulação de 2º turno". CNN Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 27 March 2025.
  9. ^ "Paraná Pesquisas: sem Bolsonaro, quem é mais competitivo contra Lula?". Veja (in Portuguese). 18 February 2025.
  10. ^ "Tarcísio vai melhor que Bolsonaro contra Lula no 2º turno, diz AtlasIntel". CNN Brazil (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 11 February 2025.
  11. ^ "Lula é favorito em cenários para 2026 sem Bolsonaro, Gusttavo Lima é quem mais se aproxima em 2º turno, diz Genial/Quaest". Terra (in Portuguese). 3 January 2025. Retrieved 3 January 2025.
  12. ^ "O desempenho de Bolsonaro, Michelle, Tarcísio, Ratinho e Zema em eventuais disputas contra Lula em 2026". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 27 November 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
  13. ^ "Pesquisa testa cenários com Lula, Marçal, Tarcísio, Bolsonaro e Michelle para 2026; veja os números". CartaCapital (in Brazilian Portuguese). 12 November 2024. Retrieved 14 November 2024.
  14. ^ Aguiar, Victor. "Pesquisa simula eleição com Lula contra Bolsonaro, Michelle e Tarcísio; veja cenários". CNN Brasil (in Brazilian Portuguese). Retrieved 30 July 2024.
  15. ^ "Poll 02–06 May 2024" (PDF).
  16. ^ "Lula venceria Tarcísio, mas casal Bolsonaro mantém força para 2026". Poder360 (in Brazilian Portuguese). 24 May 2024. Retrieved 24 May 2024.
  17. ^ "Pesquisa de Opinião Pública Nacional - Janeiro de 2024" (PDF). Paraná Pesquisas (in Brazilian Portuguese). 9 February 2024. Retrieved 15 February 2024.
  18. ^ "Pesquisa: Lula lidera com folga, e Tarcísio é nome mais forte da oposição". Veja (in Brazilian Portuguese). 13 October 2023. Retrieved 14 October 2023.
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