The 2020 Wisconsin Supreme Court election was held on April 7, 2020, to elect a justice of the Wisconsin Supreme Court for a ten-year term.

As more than two candidates filed to run, a nonpartisan primary was held on February 18, 2020. The election saw circuit court judge Jill Karofsky defeat incumbent justice Daniel Kelly, who had been appointed to the seat by Scott Walker following the resignation of David Prosser Jr. from the court

The general election took place during the initial surge of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, and state Republicans' controversially opposed postponing the spring elections (a move largely seen as having designs of benefitting Kelly through depressed turnout). Karofsky's sizable win was regarded to be an upset victory, and was only the second instance since the 1960s in which an incumbent justice of the court was defeated. While the election was formally nonpartisan, its general election result was viewed as a win for the Democratic Party, while Kelly was a conservative backed by the Republican Party (and who had been endorsed by incumbent U.S. President Donald Trump, a Republican).

Background

Justice Daniel Kelly was appointed to the seat by Governor Scott Walker (a Republican) in 2016 to fill the vacancy created by the retirement of David Prosser Jr..[1]

While Prosser had won election to a full ten-year term in 2011 (and therefore the seat would not have been up for election until 2021 had a vacancy not occurred),[citation needed] the vacancy resulted in the election for a new full term in the seat being advanced to 2020. Wisconsin's constitution stipulates that early elections full terms can be triggered by a vacancy. The constitution stipulates that it is impermissible for more than one seat to be up for election in the same year. Elections must be moved moved to an earlier year after a vacancy, but only if there is a more immediate year without a scheduled contest.[2] All supreme court elections are held during the spring elections in early April. [3] Since there were was no supreme court election scheduled in 2020, but there were elections scheduled in each of the years between Prosser's retirement and then, the vacancy only advanced election for the seat by a mere year (allowing Kelly to occupy the seat as an appointed justice for more than three years).

Appointment

Appointee

Considered but not appointed

Primary election

Candidates

Advanced

Eliminated in primary

Primary results

Primary results by county:
  Kelly
  •   Kelly 40–50%
  •   Kelly 50–60%
  •   Kelly 60–70%
  •   Kelly 70–80%
  Karofsky
  •   Karofsky 40–50%
  •   Karofsky 50–60%
  •   Karofsky 60–70%
2020 Wisconsin Supreme Court primary election[9]
Candidate Votes %
Daniel Kelly (incumbent) 352,876 50.04%
Jill Karofsky 261,783 37.13%
Edward A. Fallone 89,184 12.65%
Write-in 1,295 0.18%
Total votes 705,138 100.0%

General election

COVID-19 pandemic, efforts to postpone election and Republican resistance

The election took place in the state's spring elections, which also included the state's presidential primaries. The outbreak of the COVID–19 pandemic in the United States occurred in the weeks prior to the spring election. Following the outbreak, several other states had delayed their presidential primaries and extended their vote-by-mail periods, since concerns were raised by health officials, poll workers, and voters that in-person voting at this early height of the pandemic would be unsafe for vulnerable individuals.[10] There were calls for Wisconsin to act similarly, but state Republicans opposed this. It was widely believed that state Republicans' objections to postponing the primaries was to advantage Kelly in the court election; with Republicans believed to have hedged that having the election proceeded as-scheduled and without emergency accommodations would depress voter turnout (particularly among liberal-leaning and Democratic-leaning voters), and that a lower-turnout election would be to Prosser's advantage.[11][12]

Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers (a Democrat) initially signed an executive order for the spring elections to be conducting exclusively by mail-in voting. However, this order was rejected by the Republican-controlled Wisconsin Legislature.[13] In a ruling issued on April 2, U.S. District Court Judge William M. Conley refused to postpone the election, but extended the deadline for absentee voting to April 13 (ordering clerks not to release any election data before that date).[14][15] However, on April 6, the Supreme Court of the United States overturned Conley's decision, meaning that all absentee ballots still had to be postmarked by "election day, Tuesday, April 7" even though it was still acceptable for the ballots to be received by the clerks as late as April 13.[16][17] The Supreme Court of the United States "did not alter the provision in Conley's amended order which prohibits the reporting of results until April 13".[18] On April 4, Governor Evers called a special session of the state legislature to be held on April 6 for the purposes of having them vote to postpone in-person voting. However, this special session ended within minutes of convening and without any action, thus forcing the primary to go on as planned.[19] Despite having previously expressed the view that he lacked the power to postpone the elections by executive order,[20] on April 6, Evers issued an executive order which, if enforced, would have postponed the April 7 elections until the tentative date of June 9.[21][22] Republican leaders immediately announced that they would challenge the order in the Wisconsin Supreme Court.[21] The Wisconsin Supreme Court ruled that Evers did not have the authority to postpone the elections, thus meaning that Evers' executive order was nullified, and that the elections would be held as scheduled on April 7.[23] This was appealed to a federal court who sided with the governor, and that was appealed to the US Supreme Court, which on a 5–4 vote, upheld the state court's ruling.[24]

Voting was somewhat chaotic, with people waiting in the rain for hours in some cases in masks and social distancing.[25] However, by the time the election concluded, Milwaukee Election Commissioner Neil Albrecht stated that despite some of the problems, the in-person voting ran smoothly.[26]

Campaign

During the campaign, Karofsky criticized Kelly and other members of the court's conservative majority for majority opinions that she argued gave them the appearance of being beholden to special interests. She also criticized Kelly and other conservative justices for having made comments that she characterized as unbefitting of judges.[27]

Kelly was backed by the state's Republican Party, and was endorsed by Republican incumbent U.S. President Donald Trump.[28]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Daniel
Kelly
Jill
Karofsky
Hodas & Associates (R)[29][A] March 17–19, 2020 600 (RV) 36% 29%

Results

2020 Wisconsin Supreme Court election[30]
Candidate Votes %
Jill Karofsky 855,573 55.21%
Daniel Kelly (incumbent) 693,134 44.73%
Write-in 990 0.06%
Total votes 1,549,697 100.0%

Aftermath

Analysis

Karofsky's sizable win was regarded to be an immense upset victory. Several political pundits opined that rather than depress Democratic and liberal voter turnout, the highly-public maneuvering by state Republicans to prevent a postponement of the election had motivated Democrats to turn out for Karofsky.[31][32] While the election was formally nonpartisan, the result of the general election was regarded as a victory for the Democratic Party, as the liberal Democratic Party-backed Karofsky defeated the conservative Republican Party-backed Daniel Kelly (who had carried the endorsement of President Trump).[31][33] The outcome narrowed the court's conservative majority from 5–2 to 4–3. This was the first time since 2008 that an incumbent justice was unseated, and only only the second time since 1967.[34]

This outcome differed from the preceding 2019 state supreme court election, in which a conservative candidate had narrowly prevailed over a liberal candidate for another of the court's seats . However, the outcome and vote share resembled the supreme court result of 2018 for despite the two elections having different levels of turnout. Similar to both 2020 and 2018, both of the two supreme court elections to be held since (2023 and 2025) have also had results in which a liberal candidate has defeated a conservative candidate by a vote share of roughly 55% to 45%, despite there being variance in overall turnout between the four elections.[35]

Notes

  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  1. ^ The Restoration PAC is a 501 non-profit which supported Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign.

References

  1. ^ "Gov. Scott Walker appoints attorney Dan Kelly to Wisconsin Supreme Court". FOX6Now.com. July 22, 2016. Archived from the original on July 25, 2016. Retrieved December 10, 2016.
  2. ^ "Wisconsin Question 2, Unified Court System Amendment (April 1977)". Ballotpedia. Retrieved 27 March 2025.
  3. ^ "Portraits of Justice" (PDF). Wisconsin Courts. Wisconsin Historical Society Press. 2003. pp. IX, X, and 59. Retrieved 27 March 2025.
  4. ^ "Gov. Scott Walker appoints attorney Dan Kelly to Wisconsin Supreme Court". FOX6Now.com. July 22, 2016. Archived from the original on July 25, 2016. Retrieved April 4, 2025.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h Ferral, Katelyn (May 4, 2016). "A shortlist of likely contenders for Justice David Prosser's Wisconsin Supreme Court seat". The Capital Times. p. 10. Retrieved June 4, 2024 – via Newspapers.com.
  6. ^ a b c "Here Are the 11 Applicants for Retiring Justice David Prosser's Job". Wisconsin Democracy Campaign. June 3, 2016. Retrieved April 4, 2025.
  7. ^ a b Beck, Molly (April 30, 2019). "Challengers line up to take on Supreme Court justice in 2020". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
  8. ^ Vielmetti, Bruce (March 27, 2019). "Marquette law professor Ed Fallone announces run for state Supreme Court in 2020". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
  9. ^ "2020 Spring Primary Results" (PDF).
  10. ^ "Wisconsin set to hold in-person voting in presidential primary". Reuters. 2020-04-04. Retrieved 2020-04-05.
  11. ^ Levine, Sam (14 April 2020). "Republicans tried to suppress the vote in Wisconsin. It backfired". The Guardian. Retrieved 4 April 2025.
  12. ^ Levine, Sam (14 April 2020). "Republicans tried to suppress the vote in Wisconsin. It backfired". The Guardian. Retrieved 4 April 2025.
  13. ^ Dzhanova, Yelena (2020-03-24). "Coronavirus is disrupting the 2020 election. Here are the states that have adjusted their primaries". CNBC. Retrieved 2021-02-21.
  14. ^ Richmond, Todd (April 3, 2020). "Wisconsin barrels ahead with election despite virus fears". AP.
  15. ^ Johnson, Martin (2020-04-04). "Wisconsin Republicans say they will ask Supreme Court to block extended absentee voting". TheHill. Retrieved 2020-04-05.
  16. ^ "Supreme Court blocks extended absentee voting in Wisconsin primary". Channel3000.com. April 6, 2020. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
  17. ^ Supreme Court of the United States (April 6, 2020). "REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE, ET AL. v. DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE, ET AL. No. 19A1016" (PDF). electionlawblog.org. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
  18. ^ "URGENT – Wisconsin Supreme Court Orders Election Day to Continue and U.S. Supreme Court Alters Ballot Receipt Deadline; Tallying and Reporting Results Still Prohibited Until April 13 – COVID-19". Wisconsin Elections Commission. Archived from the original on April 7, 2020. Retrieved 2020-04-07.
  19. ^ Glauber, Bill; Marley, Patrick. "In matter of seconds, Republicans stall Gov. Tony Evers' move to postpone Tuesday election". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
  20. ^ Governor Evers Tweet April 1 2020
  21. ^ a b Bradner, Eric; Sullivan, Kate (April 6, 2020). "Wisconsin governor orders delay of primary election until June". CNN. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
  22. ^ Ruthhart, Bill (April 7, 2020). "Wisconsin governor issues executive order to delay Tuesday's election until June". chicagotribune.com.
  23. ^ "Wisconsin Supreme Court rules Evers cannot postpone election". WISN. Associated Press. April 6, 2020. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
  24. ^ Mystal, Elie (2020-04-07). "SCOTUS Just Set the Stage for Republicans to Steal the Election". ISSN 0027-8378. Retrieved 2021-02-21.
  25. ^ Perano, Ursula. "Wisconsin won't be declaring a winner tonight". Axios. Retrieved 2021-02-21.
  26. ^ Mikkelson, Marti (April 8, 2020). "Milwaukee Election Chief: Despite Some Issues, In-Person Voting Went Smoothly". www.wuwm.com. Retrieved 2021-02-21.
  27. ^ Marley, Patrick (April 13, 2020). "Liberal judge Jill Karofsky Defeats Conservative Justice Daniel Kelly in Closely Watched Wisconsin Supreme Court Race". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved 4 April 2025.
  28. ^ Epstein, Reid J. (April 13, 2020). "Upset Victory in Wisconsin Supreme Court Race Gives Democrats a Lift". The New York Times. Retrieved April 14, 2020.
  29. ^ Hodas & Associates (R)
  30. ^ "2020 Spring Election and Presidential Preference Results" (PDF).
  31. ^ a b Epstein, Reid J. (April 13, 2020). "Upset Victory in Wisconsin Supreme Court Race Gives Democrats a Lift". The New York Times. Retrieved April 14, 2020.
  32. ^ Multiple sources:
  33. ^ "Election results: Wisconsin spring primary election". projects.jsonline.com. Journal Sentinel. Retrieved April 14, 2020.
  34. ^ Marley, Patrick (April 13, 2020). "Liberal judge Jill Karofsky Defeats Conservative Justice Daniel Kelly in Closely Watched Wisconsin Supreme Court Race". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved 4 April 2025.
  35. ^ Coleman, J. Miles; Kondik, Kyle (2 April 2025). "Conservatives Fall Well Short Again in Wisconsin Court Race; Shades of 2017 in Florida Special Elections". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved 3 April 2025.


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