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=====Points against the rise of a Chinese superpower===== |
=====Points against the rise of a Chinese superpower===== |
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*The iron grip of Chinese state control is beginning to loosen due to, a move away from [[communist]] ideals and a move towards a more [[capitalist]] way of life; the growth of the [[internet]] and the spread of free media. This may lead to a massive increase in calls for independance from regions such as [[Tibet]]. |
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⚫ | *China is disadvantaged by its bad relations with neighbours. Many Chinese hold grudges against Japan due to World War II, it has fought a war with the other Asian Regional Power, India, and is seen by the U.S.A. as a Soviet-type threat, these relations may eventually hamper China's growth into a superpower. It is also rumoured that Western Nations are seeking more services |
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Many observers are beginning to see the failure of Chinese censorship on the internet, with [[blogs]] being a particiular example. Chinese officials have tried to block many major sources of information on the internet, including [http://news..bbc.co.uk BBC News] and even this site, [[Wikipedia]], with varying successes. |
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⚫ | *China is disadvantaged by its bad relations with neighbours. Many Chinese hold grudges against Japan due to World War II, it has fought a war with the other Asian Regional Power, India, and is seen by the U.S.A. as a Soviet-type threat, these relations may eventually hamper China's growth into a superpower. It is also rumoured that Western Nations are seeking more services causing a problem is the continued Chinese claims over [[Taiwan]]. China has threatened Tawain with invasion should they declare formal |
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*English, being the language of the global economy, is lacking among Chinese manufacturing groups and although this has had little disadvantage in the past, it may be likely to disadvantage China in the future. |
*English, being the language of the global economy, is lacking among Chinese manufacturing groups and although this has had little disadvantage in the past, it may be likely to disadvantage China in the future. |
Revision as of 17:29, 9 January 2006
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- This article is about superpowers in the context of international relations. For superhuman abilities possessed by fictional characters, known as superpowers, see superhero. For the nationsim, see SuperPower Classic.

A superpower is a state with the ability to influence events and project power on a worldwide scale. It was a term applied to the Soviet Union and the United States during the Cold War. There is a view that any retrospective application of the term to an earlier Great Power or Global Empire is anachronistic.
Origins
At the end of the Second World War, the British Empire, the Soviet Union and the United States emerged as the dominant powers on the global scene. It was not until the Suez Crisis that it became clear that the British Empire, ravaged by the destruction of two world wars, could not compete on an equal political, military or economic footing with the Soviet Union and the United States without sacrificing its reconstruction efforts.
As the majority of the war was fought far from the United States' national boundaries, it did not suffer the industrial destruction or massive civilian casualties which marked the wartime situation of the countries in Europe or Asia, and during the war the USA had built up a strong industrial and technological infrastructure which had greatly advanced their military strength into a primary position.
Following the war, much of Europe had also been occupied by another Allied power, the Soviet Union under Josef Stalin. Despite attempts to create multinational coalitions or legislative bodies (such as the United Nations), increasingly it became clear that both the USA and the USSR were the dominant political and economic powers of the newly emerging Cold War, and had very different visions about what the postwar world ought to look like.
The term "superpower" was first used in this context in 1930, according to the Oxford English Dictionary, but did not pick up as a primarily descriptive term for the USA and USSR until the immediate postwar years (in the 1920s the term was used to describe electrification). It implied that these two nations were part of an emerging bipolar world, in contrast with a previous multipolar world. Whether a true reflection or not, a number of nations undertook various programs to guarantee their own independent "superpower" status, such as the development of nuclear weapons by the United Kingdom, France, and China, as conscious attempts for military independence from the USA and USSR as well as a rite of passage for being a "world player".
The idea that the Cold War period revolved around only two nations, or even only two blocs, has been seriously challenged by scholars in the post-Cold War era, who have noted that the bipolar world only exists if one ignores all of the various movements and conflicts which occurred without influence from either of the two so-called superpowers. Additionally, much of the conflict between the superpowers was fought in "proxy wars", which more often than not involved issues far more complex than the standard Cold War oppositions.
After the Soviet Union disintegrated in the early 1990s, the term hyperpower has been applied to the United States as the sole remaining superpower of the Cold War era. This term was coined by French foreign minister Hubert Védrine in the 1990s. The validity of classifying the USA as a hyperpower is controversial. One notable opponent to this theory, Samuel P. Huntington, rejects this theory in favor of a multipolar balance of power.
Criteria
- Cultural:
Strong cultural influence, having soft power.
- Economic and financial:
Superior economic power, characterized by access to raw materials, volume and productivity of the domestic market, a leading position in world trade as well as global financial markets, innovation and the ability to accumulate capital.
- Demographic:
A large population, high level of education, well-developed infrastructure, and pronounced cultural and economic ability to shape the regions around them as well as the ones under direct control.
- Military:
Pre-eminent military ability, characterized by relative invulnerability, ability to deter or cause great damage, and capacity to project military might globally.
- Political or ideological:
Functioning political system, capable of mobilizing resources for world political goals and immense ideological influence.
A New Factor
It has been predicted by many members of the international community, including Dick Morris (former advisor to President Bill Clinton), that technological growth in the coming decades will result in manufacturing industry going the way of farming and losing its place in the economy. Such a situation would particularly damage the economy of Emerging Superpower China
- Robotics, particularly from Japan and the United States will end the need for manufacturing employment. Workers in manufacturing industry would lose out to the more efficient forces of robotics.
- The Services and Information Technology Sector would increase in growth as a result of the technological revolution.
- These changes may result in a new criteria for Superpower Status known as the ability to become a Knowledge or Scientific Superpower.
- Globalization indicates that most technologies will be widespread in the future through internet and other global services.
Cold War (1945-1991)
The Soviet Union
The Soviet Union was the United States' superpower rival during the Cold War. The Soviet Union was not just a superpower rival, but also an ideological rival, representing the ideology of Communism in opposition to the Capitalism of the west. The Soviet Union led the Warsaw Pact and was commonly known as the Eastern Bloc, the "East" or Second World in the West. The Soviet Union was a political, military and economic superpower.
The United States
The United States provided the largest contribution to NATO (also referred to as the First World or, sometimes, as the "West" or the "Western Bloc", as compared to the Eastern bloc) during the Cold War. It was militarily, politically and economically opposed to the Soviet Union and like its rival was a political, military and economic superpower.
Present day and post-Cold War (1991-present)
The post-Cold War world is considered an unipolar world, as the United States is the world's sole remaining superpower, with the largest economic and military capabilities.
Some analysts think the hegemonic stability theory explains the current evolution in international relations. Hegemonic states tend to overstretch their power. At the same moment new rivals will become gradually more powerful, eventually replacing or counterbalancing the weakened hegemon. This scenario could be happening at the moment, as high military spending could weaken the USA in the long term. Other - currently major - powers could possibly benefit from this decline, eventually overtaking the USA's leading position.
A possible signal that a multipolar world is emerging is the strategic comprehensive partnership between the (rising) China and the European Union, designed not to oppose the USA, but to create a multipolar world.
The superpower: the United States
Only the United States fulfills the five criteria of a superpower. Because the United States currently has no equals in terms of power projection and influence, it is often called a hyperpower.
- Demographically, it has a large slowly growing population of almost 300 million.
- Politically, it has a stable democratic system, state of law, human rights, etc.
- Economically, the USA is the world's largest economy, that is characterized with moderate to high economic growth. Furthermore, the USA is the leading country in technology and innovation.
- Militarily, the USA is spending more on its military than the next twelve countries combined. However, due to the size of its economy, the United States actually spends a far smaller percentage of its Gross National Product on its military than many countries, even as it outspends all of its rivals in absolute terms. Even more, the USA has military allies (like NATO and ANZUS) and military bases in Europe, Asia and Oceania. Additionally, the USA also has the world's second largest nuclear arsenal, after Russia. The US is also developing an anti-ballistic missile shield, which could enhance its military power greatly.
- Culturally, the USA is the most dominant actor. According to some analysts this enhances the power of the US indirectly. This power is often called soft power, or the ability of a state to indirectly influence the behavior or interests of other political bodies through cultural or ideological means.
Major powers
These are countries and political entities that cannot be regarded as superpowers, but nevertheless play a big role in the world, as they are very powerful in several aspects. They may eventually reach superpower status, although in many cases they are in relative decline, having once been Great Powers.
France
France's first taste of power was under Charlemagne who's empire included all of mainland France, Andorra, Switzerland, Benelux, Austria, Lichtenstein, most of Germany, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, and parts of Spain and Hungary. This empire quikly fell apart, however. France would not be a major power again until the reign of Louis XIV, who expanded the border eastward several hundred kilometers. French power would grow enormously a century later in the French Revolutionary Wars and the Napoleonic Wars. The Napoleonic Empire was destroyed however. France later gained almost all of west Africa, Madagascar, and Indochina at the height of its colonial empire. These all gained independence after WWII. France still exercises economic and cultural dominance over former French colonies in Africa, and plays a leading role in the European Union (along with Germany). However, in political and military terms, French power is a pale reflection of what it once was.
Germany
After the unification of Germany under Prussian overlordship Germany possessed much of the attributes sufficient for establishing hegemony over European power politics from the late 19th century onwards. Post unification Germany possessed a high rate of industrialization outpacing its main continental rival France as well as the then industrial superpower Great Britain. Second, Germany possessed a massive population second in Europe only to the population of the Russian Empire. Under the tutelage of Bismarck, Germany formulated a policy, which isolated France and placed Germany at the center of European Power Politics. The policy of Germany post Bismarck was to utilize its massive industrial capacity in the establishment of a naval force to rival that of the then master of the sea Great Britain. As a result of this threat Britain formulated the Entente Cordiale (with Germany's continental rival France) to form a block against future German aggression. Soon Russia would join the Entente to establish a coalition with the strategic purpose of restricting the future expansion of German power in Europe. WWI as well as WWII are in part a strategic war in which Germany tried to expand its power to create a super power state in the heart of Europe, while Russia, France, and Great Britain fought to restrict the rise of a future German super state. The dream of a German super power might eventually be realized with the further consolidation of the European Union into a super state with Germany as its economic giant.
United Kingdom
The British Empire was the first global power in the post Treaty of Westphalia era, and by its height in 1921 it held a quarter of the world's population and a third of its landmass as subjects to the British Crown. Its extent was so great that its influence is commonly refered to by historians as finding its peer only in the Roman Empire. However, the two decades subsequent to World War II saw most of The British Empire's colonies and influence disintegrate, most notably after the independence of India in 1947 and the 1956 Suez Crisis. The 1960s saw the Empire's African colonies quickly evaporate as countries were granted independence in rapid succession. It is generally agreed by historians that, as a result of the Nazi atrocities during World War II and the postion of the West on the Soviet domination of Eastern Europe during the height of the Cold War, that domination of cultures and countries by foreign powers became unacceptable and immoral to the international community. Today, the modern United Kingdom is head of the Commonwealth of Nations, an association of independent sovereign states, directly descended from the British Empire. The UK also has close relationships with the fifteen other Commonwealth Realms, as they all share the same head of state.
Military power
The United Kingdom's close relationship with the United States is considered by spectators to be one of the principal sources of the the United Kingdom's modern influence. Although the United States and United Kingdom have had a close military and political relationship since the mid 19th century, the codification of this alliance during World War I, World War II, and finally with the North Atlantic Treaty has engendered a closeness between the two countries to such an extent that as of 2004, the British Armed Forces were planning for an immediate future where any large overseas operation would be undertaken as part of a coalition with the United States.
- The US Navy and the Royal Navy share a common pool of cruise missiles and Trident missiles, and as such, are the only states to share Nuclear Weapons.
- The UK is one of the five authorized Nuclear weapon states. Currently it is planning to update and replace its existing Nuclear Arsenal, with the building of new British designed warheads as its likely outcome.
- The UK is the only Tier 1 member of the Joint Strike Fighter stealth fighter program and plans on replacing the Harrier V/STOL jet with the new stealthy fighter/attack planes. Its special status on this, the largest military program in history, sees it paying several billion dollars towards the project's development and the UK's BAE Systems' appointment as one of the primary sub-contractors for the program. It will receive the F-35B STOVL version for the Royal Navy and the RAF with the complete American technology, sensor and avionics package (export versions to other countries, even western allies, will receive a less sophisticated package). The UK has been criticized by other EU countries, and even by internal critics, for adopting an American made fighter for its next-generation air projection capabilities instead of further orders for the European made Eurofighter Typhoon.
- The UK and US work closely in developing next generation military equipment, such as the UK's Future Infantry Soldier Technology and the US's Future Combat System. The UK and US share many similar technologies, arsenal pools and use common military components agreed upon by NATO standards, although they use different Main Battle Tanks (e.g. Challenger 2 MBT for the UK, M1A2 MBT for the US), different uniforms, and different assault rifles. There are efforts for further integration and this has been seen in the past in instances such as the implementation of British Chobham armour in both Challenger and Abrams tanks. The recent acquisition of the American defence contractor United Defense by BAE Systems could be interpreted as further evidence of future integration.
- The British Intelligence and American agencies share information on a daily basis through the UKUSA Community, and British and American high level diplomats are believed to communicate regularly on such issues. Furthermore the British Armed Forces maintains permanent representation within Pentagon planning. Evidence of this can be found in that during the Invasion of Iraq, the British Operation Telic was headquartered at CENTCOM in Qatar and for the first time since World War II, a non-American General was given command of American military personel and assets from the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force.
Economic power
From a non-military perspective, American and British culture, politics and economics are also equally intertwined. While this role as a confidante of America and a mediator between the United States and the European Union brings it global influence disproportional to its size as a country, it has also created political complications in recent years as global reaction to the 2003 Iraq War and the subsequent ongoing peacekeeping and stability operations has led to some accusations that the UK is acting like the "51st State".
Cultural power
The most obvious sign of Britain's Cultural Influence is the spread of English from the language of the Medieval Anglo-Saxons to a world language taught in most schools as either a First or Second Language. Britain's Culture is now equal and the same to that of the United States, which creates the political idea that it is now American Culture that is spreading, not 'English Culture'. Historically though, the culture was always Britain's and it was Britain that spread this culture over the world.
Political power
The modern United Kingdom, although it does not seek the resources to be the great power it once was, is still a major player through its position as one of the most influential members of the European Union, its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council and perhaps more importantly, its special relationship with the world's only superpower, the United States. As a member of the EU, it is seen as a strong proponent of trade liberalisation and a foreign policy that aligns the bloc closely with the United States. This has often put it into political conflict with France, which opposes both goals.
The United Kingdom's seat on the UNSC is sometimes considered to be an example of how the structure of the council reflects the political realities of 1945 and not the modern relationships between countries. Although this is true in terms of population and landmass, the United Kingdom possesses the world's fourth largest economy [1], and the British Armed Forces, deployed to over 80 countries, are one of the most powerful and comprehensive military forces in the World. It is considered the peer of the United States in most ways (training, experience, technology), and its global power projection capabilities are considered to be second only to those of the United States Armed Forces. The Royal Navy is the second largest navy in the World in terms of gross tonnage, and is in charge of the United Kingdom's independent strategic nuclear arm, which consists of four SSBN's armed with Trident D5 SLBM's. This generally leads to the position of the United States on issues of global security to be nearly the same as that of the United Kingdom. Evidence of this can be seen in that many of the UN Security Council Resolutions on issues relating to the Global War on Terror and the Iraq War (including the famous Resolution 1441) were either written by the two countries in cooperation and jointly proposed, or solely proposed by the United Kingdom after co-authoring with the United States in situations when co-sponsorship would be politically complicated for potential signatories.
The fact that the United Kingdom is no longer the great power that it was a century ago does not mean that its global influence has significantly diminished. Today, because of its position as a member of the European Union, the Commonwealth of Nations and NATO, its vigorous economy, its extensive military capabilities, its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, and its special relationship with the United States, the UK can affect events on a global scale. Many political commentators see the coming test for the United Kingdom this century to be not whether it will continue to be an important player in regional and global affairs, but rather if it will continue to wield such power as a result of tilting closer to the United States, or closer to the European Union, or remaining as a moderating force between the two halves of the West.
European Union
The European Union contains the former world powers United Kingdom, Germany and France. If counted as a single unit, the E.U. would have the largest economy in the world, as well as formidable military potential. Thanks to its highly developed economies, the European Union as a whole is one of the leading places for investment, science, and technology, though it is lagging behind in R&D expenditures (in % of GDP) compared to the United States and Japan. The EU already has a tremendous cultural, political and economical attraction for surrounding states. At present, transitionally industrial countries such as Croatia and Turkey are actively seeking full EU membership.
Political and military fragmentation presents the greatest obstacle to the EU's status as a single superpower. This status would likely depend on further progress in European integration and federalization. The repudiation of the new European constitution by the voters of founder nations and EU stalwarts, France and the Netherlands, in 2005, undermined plans for closer integration. Future political developments will determine the place of the EU in world events.
- See also: Economy of the European Union.
Japan
With the world's second largest economy, Japan has significant international influence. Japan currently has the fourth largest military spending in the world. It is also a world leader in terms of its technological capabilities, and could easily develop nuclear weapons . Its population is healthy, wealthy and well-educated and its sizeable economy has been growing at a stable rate. Further, Japan is a member of the G4, a group of nations that includes Germany, Brazil and India These countries are sponsoring each other's accession to a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, which, if successful, would give Japan greater political influence. It was announced in August this year, however, that China and the United States and a whole lot of many other countries had agreed together to veto this accession bid.
Emerging powers (BRIC)
- Main article: BRIC.
Some observers believe that the relative power of the four following countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) will increase at a fast rate in the coming decades. The combination of these four countries is often named BRIC.
Brazil
Brazil is considered an emerging South American superpower because:
Demographic power
- It has a large population and territory, a strategic position in the South Atlantic and in the Amazon.
- The potential to form the leading core of a united South America.
Points against the rise of a Brazilian superpower
There are many factors that are weighing down on this claim:
- Brazil still suffers from many problems typical of developing countries, such as poor infrastructure, poverty, a massive gap between the rich and poor, an unstable economy, disease, famine, widespread corruption, and inefficiency. 60-70% of people are suffering from lack of housing, a good public health system and lack of good education;
- As a military power, Brazil has long ago relinquished hegemonic status in South America; and after the restoration of democracy, military spending, along with the will to upgrade the country's insufficiently equipped armed forces, has dwindled considerably. Furthermore, Brazil has signed many international agreements and limitations which will prevent it from becoming a military regional power. Relations with the United States may rely on the position of the Brazilian Military, resulting in little opportunity to develop a military at all.
- Brazil lacks an imposing and decisive presence and influence at many international forums, at the level of other powers;
- It has not yet developed nuclear weapons and means to deliver them, which would give it deterrence power;
- It does not have an economy strong enough to be able to influence the global economy when it changes significantly;
China
The People's Republic of China is often considered a rising major power due to its large and stable population, its rapidly growing economy, and its rapidly growing military spending and capabilities.
Demographic power
- China's population is the world's largest, with about 1.3 billion citizens. With the global human population currently estimated at about 6.4 billion, China is home to approximately 20%. Because of the One Child Policy China's population has stabilized. This policy combined with the rapid rising of living standards causes a rapidly aging population. In 2004 about 7% of the population was older than 65, but in 2050, about 25% of the population will be. Because in most countries the evolution to an older population happens after the evolution to economic welfare, it is expected that China's growth to economic welfare will be slowed down by its aging population.
- Another important factor is the strong and economically influential Chinese diaspora around the world, especially in South East Asian countries like Malaysia.
Economic power
- China's GDP has grown at a rate of about 9 percent per annum for more than 25 years (although recently the government has sought to slow this growth to prevent a crash), the fastest growth rate for a major economy in recorded history. The economy of China is now the second largest in the world when measured by purchasing power parity, with a GDP (PPP) of US $7.124 trillion in 2004. In the same period of time, it has moved 300 million people out of poverty and quadrupled the average Chinese person's income - yet China's per capita median income is still below that of traditional developing nations like Mexico and Turkey.
- China was also the third country (after the former Soviet Union and the USA) to send humans into space.
Military power
- Militarily, China also has the largest army worldwide, and its military expenditure doubled between 1997 and 2003, and is still increasing at a fast rate. However, China's military capabilities are still dwarfed by that of the United States, whose military spending outstrips that of its next major competitors combined. Though China currently also has, like Russia and the U.S., operational land-based ICBM systems, it is the USA that possesses the most lethal strategic capability, as it has a more reliable arsenal than Russia and a massive numerical edge in ICBMs over China. Another aspect is that China has relatively few domestic arms manufacturers and therefore has to rely on foreign arms trades to procure more technologically advanced equipment.
- China also has significant nuclear deterrent.
- China is maintaining a firm control on the regions of Tibet and the Himalayan Mountains. It was dominant in a brief war against India in 1962 and has previously found a significant nuclear powered ally in Pakistan.
- The Chinese Military strength is bolstered by a formidable array of aircraft and naval vessels, although it is not one of the most technologically advanced militaries in the world, its sheer manpower proves it to be a force worth reckoning with.
Points against the rise of a Chinese superpower
- The iron grip of Chinese state control is beginning to loosen due to, a move away from communist ideals and a move towards a more capitalist way of life; the growth of the internet and the spread of free media. This may lead to a massive increase in calls for independance from regions such as Tibet.
Many observers are beginning to see the failure of Chinese censorship on the internet, with blogs being a particiular example. Chinese officials have tried to block many major sources of information on the internet, including BBC News and even this site, Wikipedia, with varying successes.
- China is disadvantaged by its bad relations with neighbours. Many Chinese hold grudges against Japan due to World War II, it has fought a war with the other Asian Regional Power, India, and is seen by the U.S.A. as a Soviet-type threat, these relations may eventually hamper China's growth into a superpower. It is also rumoured that Western Nations are seeking more services causing a problem is the continued Chinese claims over Taiwan. China has threatened Tawain with invasion should they declare formal
- English, being the language of the global economy, is lacking among Chinese manufacturing groups and although this has had little disadvantage in the past, it may be likely to disadvantage China in the future.
- China relies on its manufacturing industry for both foreign relations and economic growth, a turn to robotics for manufacturing would significantly damage China's export capabilities, in turn damaging the economy and reducing China's foreign value.
India
Demographic power
- Similar to China, India has a population of over one billion.
- The literacy rate in city areas and some select states, including Punjab and Goa, is pleasingly high, although the national literacy is still a matter of concern.
- Indian cultural spread influences all of South Asia (including Sri Lanka) and some of the Tibetan Regions of China. The majority of people of India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka are Indo-Aryans in family background.
Military power
- The Military of India is the third largest military in the world, after the People's Republic of China and United States of America. Over a million strong, the Indian Paramilitary Forces form the largest paramilitary force in the world. Combined, the total armed forces of India are 2,414,700 strong, the world's second largest, after China. India is the world's largest arms importer, spending an estimated US $16.97 billion in 2004.
- The Indian military possesses nuclear weapons and sufficient means — a range of missiles and aircraft — to deliver these over considerably long distances.
- The Indian Air Force is the 4th Largest in the World.
- Since its formation, the Indian Military has fought in 6 Wars including the World Wars, Sino-Indian War and Indo-Pakistani Wars.
- Its military has recently been bolstered by increased government spending on arms imports and military maintenence. This is due to the 1999 Kargil Conflict, in which India's victory over Kashmiri guerillas and the Pakistani military caused a 1500 point rise in the Indian Stock Market. Thousands of Indian troops continue to be deployed to the disputed territory of Kashmir.
Economic power
- The economy of India is blooming. India grows enough rice and wheat to feed its people, as well as 16.5 million tonnes of sugar every year - 300 times as much as Barbados. Goods which are manufactured in India include steel, aluminum, electronic goods, cloth and over 675,000 cars every year.
- The Economy is 4th in the World based on Purchasing Power Parity
- In the science sector, it was the third nation to found a National Space Agency, after the Soviet Union and the United States and was therefore the third nation to send satellites into space, starting with Aryabhat in 1975.
- India's ability to provide cheap but efficient services has drawn the attention of many Western nations.
- Combined with the above point, India's Information Technology industry is rapidly expanding and has led to the outsourcing of jobs from many Western companies including Microsoft, in order to make use of these cheap yet efficient Indian workers.
- India's diverse and fascinating history has led to the creation of a booming tourism industry. With foreign visitors spending more than US $1 billion a year in India. Buildings like the Taj Mahal are exceptional examples of this tourism.
- India is part of many vital Indian Ocean Trade Routes, some of which have been operating for a large number of years, the presence of these routes give a boost to Foreign Relations and trades.
Cultural power
- India's film industry, known as "Bollywood," produces more feature films than any other outside the U.S. India is one of the world's leading producers of computer software. India's cultural influence has spread all over the world through widespread immigration, particularly throughout South East Asia. Indian culture is also spread through its many religions, especially through Hinduism, Buddhism, Jainism and Sikhism, all of which were founded in India. This mixture of ancient culture and modern film-making gives it the potential for soft power.
- The Indian Public are enjoying media Westernization with both Indian radio and television converting to become similar to Western media.
Points against the rise of an Indian superpower
- India's growth is hampered, however, by its border disputes. It neighbours nuclear superpowers China and Pakistan, has disputes with Bangladesh over water availability and the Farakka Dam, and is forced to deal with the unstable and divided state of Sri Lanka off its Southern coast. This local competition and instability presents obstacles to India's rise to the status of a regional superpower. However, it is the world's largest democracy and has better foreign relations with modern-day superpowers such as the U.S.A. than does the People's Republic of China. These relations have proven invaluable when it comes to purchasing arms.
- India is quickly overpopulating and may need to exercise extreme measures in order to stabilize the population.
Russia
Russia still possesses some attributes of a world power, notably including the world's largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, inherited from the USSR. It also has the proven ability to conduct manned space travel.
- Perhaps most importantly, it is the geographically largest country of the world and has control over a variety of strategic raw materials.
- It has a monopoly over oil resources in the entirety of Europe and is the main supplier of oil to the European Union. It has, in the past, cancelled oil supplies to its neighbour Ukraine, which has caused small periods of chaos.
Military power
- Russia still has a clear capacity for destructive force, which in light of the current delicate political situation is not calculable beyond the medium-term. At present, it has only the capacity to be a military force.
- It has a large arsenal of nuclear weapons which have the capability of major destructive force.
- With the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has still continued exploring the boundaries of space, sometimes in cooperation with space missions conducted by NASA. These operations could easily transform into a powerful military program.
- It is part of the United Nations Security Council due to its nuclear capabilities and large land mass which continues to give it veto capabilities in the UN.
Points against the rise of a Russian superpower
- It has been described as a dictatorship diguised under the title of democracy by insiders and this has caused much political outrage. Russia's relations with US are reasonable at best and it is constantly under threat of terrorist attacks from Chechen rebels.
- Russia's economy is generally thought to be unstable and less competitive on a global scale. The population has been shrinking since the fall of the Soviet Union and is predicted to fall even lower within the next 10 years, due to drastically shortened life expectancies since 1990 and falling birthrates. Life in what was one of the safest places in the world has become rife with danger and insecure for most people;
- Russia is also unable to prevent illegal Chinese immigration into Asian Russia which may cause the eventual loss of that mineral rich region. A major brain drain of Russia's vast coterie of high quality scientists and engineers, a legacy of its excellent Soviet era education system, is also occurring and undermining Russia's long term economic development. Out of control post Soviet corruption diverts vast sums of government resources away from valuable programs. Corruption is also endemic in its business sector.
- It is quite predictable that any rise of a Russian Superpower would immediately be treated like a crisis by the American State Department and the United States would do all that can be done to stifle growth of a Russian Superpower.
See also: Economy of Russia, Military of Russia.