Template:Future election

Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 7, 2006, with 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate being contested. Senators are elected for six-year terms, and the term of office for those elected in 2006 will be from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2013. Those Senators who were elected in 2000 (known as "Class 1") will be seeking reelection or retiring in 2006.

The 2006 House election is scheduled for the same date as the Senate election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.

The Senate is currently composed of 55 Republicans, who have been in the majority since 2003, 44 Democrats, and 1 Democratic-leaning Independent (former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont). Jeffords is retiring and his seat is one of the 33 seats being contested, while another 17 are held by Democrats and 15 are held by Republicans.

To control 51 seats, a majority in the Senate, Democrats would need a net gain of 6 seats (presuming that independent candidate Bernie Sanders wins Jim Jeffords' seat in Vermont and continues to caucus with the Democrats as he does in the House). Republicans need to hold only 50 seats after the election to have a majority because the Vice President (currently Republican Dick Cheney) breaks all tie votes in his role as President of the Senate.

To gain a "working majority" of 60 members – the number of votes required to break a filibuster – Republicans would need a net gain of 5 seats. However, more conservative Democrats may also contribute to the "working majority", and more liberal Republicans may go against it.

Incumbent senators have a high rate of re-election, even when their party affiliation is at odds with other political trends of their state. The most competitive races tend to be those where the incumbent has retired or has served only one term.

The market-based outcomes of an independent public trading exchange suggests as of July 9, 2006, that the most vulnerable Republican seats are Pennsylvania and Montana, which are likely to switch control. In addition, the same market suggests that in Rhode Island, Ohio, and Missouri, the chance that the Republicans will keep the seat is less than two out of three. For the Democrats, two seats (Minnesota and New Jersey) fall below the two-out-of-three threshold of safety, but are still deemed likely by the public market to be retained by the Democrats.

Additional special elections that are held due to the death or resignation of Senators in the interim would change the party balances listed above.

Main article : Minnesota United States Senate election, 2006

On February 9, 2005, Senator Dayton announced that he would not seek a second term in the Senate. Dayton was never all that popular in Minnesota or well-regarded in the Senate, so his fellow Democrats were relieved by his retirement.

Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar is the leading candidate seeking the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) nomination. Klobuchar was endorsed at the DFL state convention, but after Kelly Doran and Ford Bell dropped out of the race, she faces no major opposition to the party nomination.

Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, the presumed GOP nominee, secured major GOP endorsements in early 2005 and will not face any serious challengers. Kennedy has benefited from high-profile Republicans coming to fund raise for him, including Vice President Dick Cheney in July 2005 and President George W. Bush in December 2005.

Polls show a very competitive race but Klobuchar has been the frontrunner in every publically released poll since mid-2005. The latest Zogby poll gives Klobuchar 48.6% and Kennedy 41.2% (June 22, 2006).

Main article : Tennessee United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee, the current Majority Leader, has previously promised to leave the Senate when his second term ends in 2006, and is widely considered to have presidential aspirations for 2008.

Although Tennessee's electoral votes went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, a majority of the elective offices are held by Democrats. Tennessee also has more registered Democratic voters than Republican voters and sends more Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives than Republicans.

The Democratic nominee will be Rep. Harold Ford, Jr.. Republican candidates include former U.S. Reps. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary, along with former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker. In the Republican primary, Corker currently has a slim lead over Hilleary and an slightly larger lead over Bryant. Corker is well funded and is advertising heavily in the western portion of the state, where he was relatively unknown before this race, Hilleary is benefitting from residual name identifiation from a near-successful 2002 campaign for Governor, and Bryant is supported by most grass roots conservative groups.

In the general election, Ford is currently in statistical dead-heat with each of his potential Republican opponents as of a June 2006 Zogby poll.

Main article : Vermont United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont left the Republican Party to become an independent soon after being reelected as a Republican in the 2000 election. On April 20, 2005, he declared he would not seek another term. The national Democratic Party is unlikely to support any party candidate because several leading members have already endorsed independent and self-described "democratic socialist" Representative Bernie Sanders.

Governor James "Jim" Douglas and Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie both considered running but ultimately opted out.

Cris Ericson, Republican, Greg Parke, Republican, and Rich Tarrant, Republican are competing against each other in the Vermont Primary Election on September 12, 2006 for an opportunity to run against Bernie Sanders in the General Election in November 2006.

Bernie Sanders already represents Vermont in his House seat (there is only one Congressional district in the state of Vermont).

Main article : Maryland U.S. Senate election, 2006

Senator Paul Sarbanes announced on March 11, 2005 that he would retire rather than run for re-election in 2006. Sarbanes' seat was previously considered safe, as Maryland is a Democratic-leaning state. Kevin Zeese has received the nomination of both the Green and Libertarian Parties. Zeese is a populist, fiscal conservative attorney. Former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume, American University professor Allan Lichtman, and Rep. Ben Cardin have announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination. Four other minor Democratic candidates are in the race. Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele, a Republican, announced his candidacy on October 25, 2005, and is currently the only major contender for the Republican nomination. Polls show Steele running competitively against all the Democrats running. Democrats have a natural advantage in Maryland, with its large number of African-American voters and government workers. But Steele's personal popularity and potential appeal with his fellow blacks puts this race in doubt. Both parties suffered setbacks in the campaign. Two staffers from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee were discovered to have illegally obtained Steele's credit report. However, Steele compared stem cell research to the Holocaust in the fall of 2005, and his support has since fallen by ten points and he now trails both Ben Cardin and Kweisi Mfume in the polls.

Main article : Washington United States Senate election, 2006

In 2000, wealthy internet executive and former Congresswoman Maria Cantwell unseated then-Senator Slade Gorton by some 2,200 votes, the smallest margin in state history, after spending a portion of her personal fortune. She has drawn fire from liberals in Washington for some of her votes, including her vote for the Iraq War Resolution, for the confirmation of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and against the attempted filibuster of Samuel Alito. Mark Wilson and Hong Tran filed as primary challengers because of these votes. In 2005 she voiced support in Washington State Democratic Party circles for the John Murtha Resolution on redeploying American armed forces from Iraq. In early July, Wilson announced that he will pull out of the race, endorse Cantwell, and campaign full time on her behalf.

Former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick is the GOP candidate supported by the chairwoman of the Washington State Republican Party, Diane Tebelius. He was once Gorton's Chief of Staff and is believed to have similar moderate-to-conservative politics. The other announced Republican candidates for the Senate seat are paralegal C. Mark Greene, and police officer and minister Brad Klippert.

On March 9, 2006, Aaron Dixon, former captain of the Seattle chapter of the Black Panther Party announced his intention to seek the Green Party's nomination for U.S. Senate, challenging Senator Cantwell on her continued support for the U.S. presence in Iraq and the USA PATRIOT Act. The Libertarian Party nominated Western Washington University business instructor Bruce Guthrie as its candidate in April.

Polls show McGavick gaining ground but Cantwell still leading. The latest poll by Rasmussen Reports gives Cantwell a 44% to 40% lead [1], and the latest poll by Strategic Vision gives her a 47% to 43% lead [2]. McGavick is clearly benefitting from an early TV ad buy, but Cantwell's support has fallen for the fourth consecutive month and the fifth time in the last six months according to Rasmussen Reports.

Main article : Connecticut U.S. Senate election, 2006

Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut was originally thought to be a shoo-in. He remains the favorite, but his reelection prospects have been complicated by political cross-currents. Lieberman has drawn fire from liberals within his party for his continual support for the foreign policy of President George W. Bush and for statements that he has made in which he has criticized other Democrats for "undermining the President" during a time of war. Greenwich telecom-networking businessman Ned Lamont declared his candidacy for the Democratic nomination in March, and went on to receive 33.4% of the nomination vote at the Democratic state convention in May, more than twice the 15% needed to force a primary. Lamont will now face Lieberman in an August primary. Lieberman has stated that if he were to lose the Democratic primary, he would run as an "individual Democrat" [3] and on July 3 2006 announced he would begin collecting the necessary signatures to run as an independent in the event he loses the primary [4].

Challenging the Democratic winner in the general election is Republican Alan Schlesinger, former mayor of Derby and a former state Representative. Schlesinger has a history of winning crossover Democratic voters, but has never run in a large constituency.

Main article : New Jersey United States Senate election, 2006

Jon Corzine, elected to the Senate in 2000, was elected Governor of New Jersey in 2005. Corzine appointed Rep. Robert Menendez to serve the last year of the Senate term, and Menendez was sworn in to fill Corzine's vacancy on January 18, 2006.[5] Republican State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr. (the son of the former Governor of New Jersey and 9/11 Commission Chairman Thomas Kean) announced on March 25, 2005 that he would run for the U.S. Senate. Both nominees have problems within their own parties. Menendez has alienated many fellow Democrats with his aggressiveness and abrasiveness, while Kean is unpopular with party conservatives who consider him to be too liberal. Menendez's 36% approval rating may also be a sign of vulnerability for the incumbent, although his disapproval is also relatively small.[6] Although incumbents with under 50% ratings in polls are generally considered vulnerable, it should be noted that this rule probably doesn't apply to Menendez, since he can't really be considered a true incumbent, as he was appointed just recently and is not well known state-wide. A recent poll by Rutgers also showed that many believed Tom Kean Jr. was his father running for Senate. President George W. Bush is highly unpopular in New Jersey, but Governor Corzine's early performance in office has met with widespread disapproval, contributing to the large number of undecided voters. Menendez and Kean continue to exchange slim leads in recent polls.

Main article : Florida United States Senate election, 2006

As the only southern Democrat facing re-election, Senator Bill Nelson of Florida will draw major regional attention to this race. Florida also will elect a new governor in 2006, and the cost of two major campaigns in a large state could require that one of the Republican candidates have a high profile.

U.S. Representative Katherine Harris, who served as Secretary of State during the 2000 presidential election, is the clear favorite to win the Republican primary. So far, potential candidates floated to challenge her in the primary decided against running, due to Harris's overwhelming name I.D. among Republican voters. Nelson is not particularly popular and has made little impression since his election to the Senate. However, Harris's name I.D. among the populace at large is overwhelmingly negative and her campaign has been badly damaged by a string of gaffes and mistakes. Republicans aren't optimistic about winning this race with Harris as the nominee and even Democrats privately admit being amazed at Harris's poor showing on the campaign trail.

The most recent polls have shown Nelson defeating Harris by a margin of around 2-to-1. The most recent Rasmussen poll gives Nelson a lead of 60% to 33% [7], the most recent Quinnipiac University poll gives him a lead of 59% to 26% [8], and the most recent Strategic Vision poll shows Nelson leading by 61% to 25% [9]. Despite Republican criticism of Harris' refusal to drop out of the race, other prominent Republicans have declined to run. Her only primary opponents are wealthy developer Peter Monroe, a former member of the Resolution Trust Corporation Oversight Board, attorney LeRoy Collins, Jr., son and namesake of a long-ago Democratic Governor, and Will McBride, a wealthy attorney and son-in-law of a Christian Broadcast station owner. None of them are well-known, though McBride's name greatly resembles that of Bill McBride, the Democratic nominee for Governor in 2002.

Main article : Michigan United States Senate election, 2006

In 2000, then-Congresswoman Debbie Stabenow unseated Spencer Abraham by a 50% to 48% margin after trailing during much of the campaign. This year, she is thought to be secure, with George W. Bush's popularity falling, and well-known Republicans backing away from running. Her opponents are Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, a former state legislator, and former Detroit City Councilman Keith Butler. A third candidate, former think tank director Jerry Zandstra, failed to collect enough valid signatures to qualify for the ballot. Initially, Republicans were cautiously optimistic about Butler's potential, but his campaign has never gotten off the ground. Bouchard has begun to gain in the polls, but Stabenow still leads by a comfortable margin. Stabenow remains the solid favorite. But if Bouchard wins the nomination, then the race could become competitive. The latest EPIC/MRC poll shows Shabenow leading Bouchard by 48% to 34%.

Main article : Virginia United States Senate election, 2006

Senator George Allen of Virginia is expected by many to be a possible 2008 presidential candidate, which would almost certainly be harmed if he were to lose (or even have a tough race) for his seat in 2006. Former Secretary of the Navy James H. Webb is the Democratic nominee. Gail Parker, businesswoman, retired USAF officer and retired Pentagon civilan executive budget analyst, is on the ballot as the Independent Green party candidate.

Allen's approval rating has dropped to 47% in most recent polling. Webb is considered by many to be a tougher candidate in November for Allen than Harris Miller, who narrowly lost to Webb in the June primary, would have been.

Main article : Montana United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from current Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by a mere 3% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal, made this a highly competitive race. The two major candidates vying for the Democratic nomination were State Auditor John Morrison and state Senate President Jon Tester. But Morrison's campaign was undermined by a scandal involving his afair with a woman whose fiancé was being investigated by Morrison's office, and Tester ended up winning the primary by a 61% to 35% margin, despite being outspent 2 to 1 by Morrison.

On March 22, 2006, one day before the filing deadline, Republican state Senate Minority Leader Bob Keenan announced that he would challenge Burns in the June 6, 2006 primary. A former Big Fork School Board member and tavern owner, Keenan claimed that Burns will be defeated if he's the nominee. Nevertheless, Burns won the primary with approximately 74% of the vote; Keenan attracted only 21% of support.

An April poll by Ayres, McHenry & Associates showed Tester leading Burns by 49% to 42%.

Main article : Rhode Island United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, the most liberal Republican in the Senate, will face a primary challenge from conservative Cranston mayor Steve Laffey. Currently, the candidates for the Democratic nomination are former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse and former businessman Carl Sheeler.

Secretary of the State Matt Brown had been in the race and was the slight frontrunner for a while, but his credibility was lost due in part to a campaign finance scandal and reporting only $35,000 to the FEC available for his primary. He dropped out of the race recently. Whitehouse, a former U.S. Attorney for Rhode Island who narrowly lost the 2004 Democratic primary for Governor, is supported by the Democratic establishment. Sheeler, a Marine vet combat and staff officer of the Persian Gulf War, while still the party's progressive party outsider and dark horse, has potential appeal to those favoring anti-war postures as well as some middle class Catholics due to his own modest background and plain-spoken approach. He is seeking to appeal to Brown's former supporters, among others.

Although Laffey is running as a conservative, he has come under fire from other conservatives for supporting tax increases as Mayor and increasing city spending. It is widely believed that the more liberal Chafee would have an easier time winning in the general election due to his appeal to independent voters. Chafee, however, may be damaged by a contentious primary that could potentially alienate Republican voters and give the Democratic nominee an advantage.

The latest poll by the Taubman Center for Public Policy shows the candidates in a statistal dead heat, with Whitehouse polling 38% to Chafee's 37% and 25% undecided, but with Laffey as the nominee, Whitehouse leads by 55% to 25% [10].

Main article : Ohio United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Mike DeWine of Ohio has uninspiring approval ratings and the current Coingate scandal involving the Ohio Republican Party and the widespread unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft could hurt his re-election chances. DeWine faced primary challenges from several more conservative Republicans, such as William G. Pierce, who are unhappy with his relatively centrist stances including his role as one of the Gang of 14 who intervened to stop a showdown over judicial nominations. Lawyer and Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, who narrowly lost to Jean Schmidt in the second district on August 2, 2005, said in October 2005 he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge DeWine. U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown announced his candidacy in October 2005. Hackett withdrew from the race on February 14, 2006. Both DeWine and Brown won their primaries easily.

A June 27, 2006 Rasmussen Reports poll shows DeWine leading Brown by 46% to 39% [11].

Main article : Nevada U.S. Senate election, 2006

John Ensign of Nevada is running for re-election and was initially thought to be popular and politically secure. However, a recent poll shows he has only a 49% approval rating, which is usually not good for an incumbent going into an election year. In addition, his opponent, Jack Carter has the potential to benefit from his father, former President Jimmy Carter's name and fund-raising contacts. Although the exit of Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman from the Democratic primary removes a potentially powerful opponent for Ensign, this race still has the potential to be competitive.

Main article : Arizona United States Senate election, 2006

Wealthy real-estate developer Jim Pederson declared his intention to challenge Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona on September 14, 2005. Pederson served as Arizona Democratic Party Chairman from 2001 to 2005 while spending millions of his own money to help Democrats modernize and to elect Janet Napolitano governor. Kyl got an unexpected boost when Time Magazine listed him as one of the Ten Best Senators. Poll results have been mixed. SurveyUSA currently shows his approval at 44% and his disapproval at 47%.[12] According to the latest Rasmussen Reports poll, Kyl leads 52% to Pederson's 35% [13].

Main article : Pennsylvania United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania is the Democrats' top target in 2006. He's a very conservative member of the Senate in a state that went for John Kerry in 2004 by 2.5 percent. In his last election in the year 2000, Santorum received 7,706 more votes than Al Gore, the Democratic candidate for President, who won Pennsylvania by 4.5 percent. [14] Santorum ran against U.S. Rep. Ron Klink, a pro-life Democrat who wasn't supported by party contributors and was heavily outspent. Democrats believe that Santorum's seat is extremely vulnerable and are making it a priority for a pick-up in 2006. Popular state Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr. is the Democratic nominee and is fully supported by the party establishment.

Polls had shown Casey leading Santorum by a 15 to 20 points, but the margin has widened in recent months. A June 26 poll by Rasmussen Reports shows Casey leading Santorum by a 52% to 37% margin [15].

Main article : Missouri United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Jim Talent of Missouri, who was elected to the four remaining years of this term in a 2002 special election, might face a strong Democratic challenge for his seat. Missouri will not hold an election for governor in 2006, making this the only major statewide race in a traditional battleground state. Talent was first elected by a very slim margin and now has a well-known challenger in state Auditor Claire McCaskill, a former Jackson County (Kansas City and suburbs) Prosecutor and the 2004 Democratic Gubernatorial nominee. Missouri is considered a "swing" state. McCaskill carries some political baggage from her 2004 loss. However, Talent was elected to the Senate after a near-successful gubernatorial bid, the same position McCaskill is in now. A July 2, 2006 poll has Talent at 47% and McCaskill at 46%. [16]

Control of both the House and the Senate will be determined by the relatively small number of competitive seats - usually approximately a dozen in the House and less than a half dozen in the Senate. It is the outcome of individual elections that determines partisan control of both bodies and nationwide polls have little effect on such a small subset of individual state elections.

Current "generic ballot" House of Representatives poll numbers can be found at PollingReport.com.

• United States Senate election, 2004
• United States Senate election, 2008
• United States Senate election, 2010
• United States House elections, 2006
• United States gubernatorial elections, 2006
• United States presidential election, 2008