Ireland map; Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and respective capitals
Satellite image of Ireland, nicknamed "The Emerald Isle"

This page lists opinion polling for a United Ireland also known as a New Ireland.

In Northern Ireland

The Good Friday Agreement states that the Secretary of State should call a referendum "if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland."[1]

Non-standard question

Date Polling organisation/client Sample Yes (remain in UK) No

(for a united Ireland)

Don't know Lead Non standard question
8-22 May 2026 The Institute of Irish Studies/Sunday Times NI Survey[2] 1,534 61.4% 28.3% 10.3% 33.1% ‘would you vote yes

tomorrow for NI to remain in the UK’ (Q1)

In the future

Date Polling organisation/client Sample Yes No Undecided Will not
vote
Lead Non standard question
2025 LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph[52] 53% In 20 years
9–12 February 2024 LucidTalk[11][53] 3,207 52% 44% 8% At some point in the future
17–30 June 2023 The Institute of Irish Studies[a]/Social Market Research[15] 40% 36% 4% In 15–20 years
August 2022 LucidTalk[23] 3,384 52% 44% 4% 8% If a referendum was held in 15–20 years time.
11–26 March 2022 University of Liverpool[a]/The Irish News[24] 1,000 33.4% 41.5% *17.9%* 7.6% 8.1% In 15–20 years

*"Neither Agree/Disagree"

October 2015 RTÉ BBC NI Cross Border Survey : ROI + NI[54] 1,407 30% 43% 27% 13% "...in your lifetime?"

EU membership of United Ireland or Brexit scenarios

Date Polling organisation/client Sample Yes No Undecided Will not
vote
Lead Non standard question
March 26-31 2026 Amárach Research/European Movement Ireland[3][4] 1,200 63% 29% - - 34% "If a referendum were held tomorrow on a united Ireland in the EU, how would you vote?"
October–November 2018 LucidTalk[55] 1,334 48% 48% 4% Even If Northern Ireland left the EU on terms negotiated between the UK government and the EU
October–November 2018 LucidTalk[55] 1,334 55% 42% 3% 13% No deal scenario
October–November 2018 LucidTalk[55] 1,334 29% 60% 11% 31% If the UK remained an EU member state
September 2018 OFOC/Deltapoll[56] 52% 39% 9%13% "Imagine now that the UK decided to LEAVE the EU..."
December 2017 LucidTalk[57][58] 48% 45% 6% 0.7%3% In the context of a hard Brexit


Healthcare

Date Polling organisation/client Yes No Undecided Will not
vote
Lead Non standard question
October 2020 LucidTalk[59]35% 34% 26%1% Reference to healthcare provision

By religion, age and region

Meanwhile, 35- to 44-year-olds are also in favour of Irish unity with a 49% to 37% split.

However, older generations would still vote in favour of the Union as 55% of 45-54 year-olds are in favour compared to 36% for Irish unity while the gap widens amongst those aged over 55 to 51% to 34%.

2025 LucidTalk poll

Answer[60] Age band
<35 35–44 45–54 55+
Yes (to a United Ireland) 50% 49% 36% 34%
No 44% 37% 55% 51%
Lead 6% 12% 19% 17%

2024 poll

Answer[11] Age band
18–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+
Yes (to a United Ireland) 48% 45% 44% 42% 28% 36%
No 43% 41% 42% 54% 64% 48%
Don't know 9% 14% 13% 4% 8% 13%
Lead 5% 4% 2% 12% 36% 12%

2022 poll

Answer[20] Age band Religion
18–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+ No religion Catholic Protestant
Yes (to a United Ireland) 43% 45% 36% 34% 33% 26% 36% 67% 8%
No 24% 37% 38% 51% 51% 60% 42% 14% 81%
Don't know 22% 11% 10% 11% 8% 7% 11% 12% 7%

2016 poll

In 2016 an Ipsos MORI poll asked "If there was a referendum on the border tomorrow would you:" and the answers for different regions of Northern Ireland were as follows,[61]

Belfast

City

Greater

Belfast

Down Armagh Tyrone/

Fermanagh

Londonderry Antrim
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom 65% 77% 57% 50% 51% 53% 72%
Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom 17% 10% 27% 41% 28% 28% 17%
Don't know 17% 10% 13% 7% 19% 16% 6%
Would not vote 0% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 6%

The same poll recorded answers from people in different age groups as follows,[62]

Age band 18–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65+
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom 67% 63% 51% 57% 60% 77%
Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom 19% 19% 30% 28% 22% 14%
Don't know 12% 15% 18% 13% 13% 7%

Answers from people of different religious backgrounds were as follows,[61]

Answer Community background
Protestant Catholic Neither
Vote to stay in the United Kingdom 88% 37% 51%
Vote for Northern Ireland to join the Republic of Ireland outside the United Kingdom 5% 43% 15%
Don't know 5% 17% 30%

2014 poll

An opinion poll of 1,089 people conducted by LucidTalk in 2014 around the time of the Scottish referendum posed several questions. On the question of whether or not there should be a border poll, 47% said "yes", 37% "no" and 16% "don't know".[63] On the question, "If a referendum on Irish Unity was called under the Good Friday Agreement would you vote: Yes for unity as soon as possible, Yes for unity in 20 years, or No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is", the results were as follows.[63][64]

Answer All

persons

Religion Age band
Protestant Catholic 18–24 25–44 45–64 65+
Yes, for unity as soon as possible 5.7% 1.8% 9.8% 12.2% 5.5% 3.8% 3.3%
Yes, for unity in 20 years 24.0% 9.6% 39.5% 27.8% 26.6% 23.0% 19.7%
No for Northern Ireland to remain as it is 44.1% 57.8% 20.7% 36.6% 38.0% 45.6% 53.9%
No opinion/would not vote 26.3% 30.8% 30.1% 23.4% 29.9% 27.6% 23.0%

In the Republic of Ireland

Date Polling organisation/client Sample size Yes No Undecided Will not
vote
Lead Notes
March 2026 Amárach Research/European Movement Ireland[3][4] 1,200 59% 22% 19% 37% "If a referendum were held tomorrow on a united Ireland in the EU, how would you vote?"
November 2023 ARINS/ The Irish Times[12][13] >1,000 64% 16% 13% 5% 48%
August & September 2022 The Irish Times/Arins Project[65] 1,000 voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic 66% 16% 13% 5% 50%
December 2021 Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI[66] 1,200[67] 62% 16% 13% 8% 46%
November 2021 Business Post/Red C[68] 1,001 60% 25% 15% 35%
March 2021 RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[69] 1,000 53% 19% 28% 34% "Is it time for a united Ireland?"
May 2019 RTÉ/REDC[70] Randomly selected sample of 3,016 eligible voters outside 156 polling stations 65%19%15%46%
January 2019 RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[71] 1,000 54% 21% 25% 33% "Are you in favour of a united Ireland"
March 2017 RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[72] 1,200 49% 29% 22% 20%
December 2016 RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[73][74] 46%32%22%14% "Is it time to have a united Ireland"

54% aged 25–34 said yes

October 2010 Red C/Sunday Times[75] 1,005 57% 22% 21% 35%

Short to medium term

"In the short to medium term, do you think Northern Ireland should..." (October 2015)[76] Proportion
Remain part of the UK, with direct rule from Westminster 9%
Remain part of the UK, with a devolved assembly and Executive in Northern Ireland (the current situation) 35%
Unify with the rest of Ireland 36%
Other 1%
None of these 2%
Don't know 17%

Long term

Date Polling organisation/client Sample size Yes No Undecided Lead Notes
February 2019 RTÉ Claire Byrne Live/Amárach Research[77] 1,000 63% 18% 19% 45% "in their lifetime"
October 2015 RTÉ BBC NI Cross Border Survey : ROI + NI[54] 1,407 66% 14% 20% 42% "in your lifetime?"

When asked about tax

"Would you be in favour or against a united Ireland if it meant ..." (October 2015)[78] You would have to pay less tax There would be no change in the amount of tax you pay You would have to pay more tax
In favour of a united Ireland 73% 63% 31%
Against a united Ireland 8% 14% 44%
Don't know 18% 24% 25%

In Great Britain

A 2019 poll by Ipsos Mori and King's College London asked people in Great Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales): "If there were to be a referendum in Northern Ireland on its future, would you personally prefer Northern Ireland to choose to stay in the UK or leave the UK and join the Republic of Ireland?" The responses revealed that 36% wanted Northern Ireland to stay in the UK, 19% wanted it to join the Republic, 36% had no preference, and 9% were undecided.[79] It further revealed that support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK was highest among those who intended to vote Conservative (49%) compared to 35% for Labour voters and 31% for Liberal Democrat voters.[79]

A 2023 state of the union poll asking if Ireland should unite showed that respondents from Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales and England all had net positive views on the unification. On a scale from −10 to definitely remain in the UK to +10 to definitely unite Ireland; the people of Scotland had a net score of +1.9, England at +0.9, Wales at +0.6, and those in Northern Ireland at +0.6 also.[80]

See also

References

  1. "Irish reunification". The Institute for Government. 22 May 2018. Archived from the original on 10 October 2019. Retrieved 27 July 2019.
  2. 1 2 "Northern Ireland Surveys | Institute of Irish Studies | University of Liverpool". www.liverpool.ac.uk. Retrieved 2026-06-22.
  3. 1 2 3 Ní Aodha, Gráinne (6 May 2026). "Majority on the island in favour of Irish unity as part of EU – poll". Belfast Telegraph. Retrieved 6 May 2026.
  4. 1 2 3 Connelly, Tony (6 May 2026). "71% across Ireland favour less EU reliance on US - poll". RTÉ News. Retrieved 6 May 2026.
  5. White, Bill (2025-03-03). "LT NI 'Tracker' poll – Winter 2025". LucidTalk. Retrieved 2025-05-11.
  6. "Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey: ~year". www.ark.ac.uk. Retrieved 2025-06-08.
  7. "Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey: 2024". www.ark.ac.uk. Retrieved 2025-06-08.
  8. 1 2 "ARINS/IRISH TIMES NORTH & SOUTH RESEARCH 2024" (PDF).
  9. "Trends show rise in support for Irish unity among Northern voters". The Irish Times. Retrieved 2025-02-07.
  10. "Research reveals supporters of the union are now a minority". The Irish News. 2024-10-22. Retrieved 2024-12-13.
  11. 1 2 3 "More people in NI would vote to stay part of UK if border poll was called". 2024-02-18. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 2024-02-18.
  12. 1 2 "Irish Times/ARINS poll: Support for United Ireland is strong, but debate on costs and compromises to come first". The Irish Times. Retrieved 2023-12-05.
  13. 1 2 "NI voters would decisively reject Irish unity in border poll, new survey suggests". BelfastTelegraph.co.uk. 2023-12-02. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 2023-12-05.
  14. "Restoring the Assembly?" (PDF).
  15. 1 2 "Voting, Identity, Trust and Media" (PDF).
  16. "Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey: 2023". www.ark.ac.uk. Retrieved 2024-05-15.
  17. "Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey: 2023". www.ark.ac.uk. Retrieved 2024-05-15.
  18. "Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2023 Technical Notes" (PDF).
  19. "Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey: 2022". www.ark.ac.uk. Retrieved 2023-06-10.
  20. 1 2 "Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey: 2022". www.ark.ac.uk. Retrieved 2023-06-10.
  21. "Northern Ireland rejects Irish unity by large margin, poll shows". The Irish Times. Retrieved 2022-12-17.
  22. "North and South methodology: How we took the pulse of Ireland on unity". The Irish Times. Retrieved 2022-12-17.
  23. 1 2 O'Brien, Stephen (21 August 2022). "Majority in North back Irish unity within next 20 years". The Times. ISSN 0140-0460. Retrieved 21 August 2022.
  24. 1 2 "The Institute of Irish Studies, University of Liverpool – The Irish News Opinion Poll April 2022" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 15 April 2023. Retrieved 28 May 2023.
  25. "Ulster and the Union: the view from the North" (PDF).
  26. "Political Attitudes in Northern Ireland after Brexit and under the Protocol" (PDF).
  27. "The Ireland/Northern Ireland Protocol: Consensus or Conflict?" (PDF). Retrieved 2021-11-13.
  28. "Northern Ireland (NI) Tracker Poll Results: August 2021 POLL QUESTIONS RESULTS – MAIN REPORT" (PDF).
  29. "NI Life and Times Survey – 2020 : REFUNIFY".
  30. "Majority of Northern Irish voters want vote on staying in UK". TheGuardian.com. 29 August 2021.
  31. "Centenary poll: 44% in Northern Ireland want referendum but would not accept higher taxes to fund reunification". Belfast Telegraph. 1 May 2021. Archived from the original on 1 May 2021. Retrieved 1 May 2021.
  32. "NI would vote in stay in UK if border poll was held, according to survey". Belfasttelegraph. Archived from the original on 21 April 2021. Retrieved 2021-04-21.
  33. "ITN – State of the Union – NI – Feb 2021" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2022-09-02. Retrieved 2023-10-24.
  34. White, Bill (2021-01-26). "LT NI SUNDAY TIMES January 2021 – NI-Wide Poll". LucidTalk. Archived from the original on 2023-10-31. Retrieved 2023-10-25.
  35. Ingoldsby, Sinéad (24 February 2020). "Results of a future border poll on a knife edge". thedetail. Archived from the original on 24 February 2020. Retrieved 24 February 2020.
  36. "Poll shows Northern Ireland majority against united Ireland". Reuters. 18 February 2020. Archived from the original on 18 February 2020. Retrieved 18 February 2020.
  37. Ashcroft, Michael (11 September 2019). "Lord Ashcroft: My Northern Ireland polling. Six out of ten voters there accept the backstop. But only one in five Unionists do so". Lord Ashcroft Polls. Archived from the original on 11 September 2019. Retrieved 11 September 2019.
  38. Leahy, Pat (7 March 2019). "Irish Times poll: Northern Ireland voters do not want DUP-Tory Brexit". www.ipsos.com. Archived from the original on 8 March 2019. Retrieved 7 March 2019.
  39. Ashcroft, Michael (19 June 2018). "Brexit, the Border and the Union". LordAshcroftPolls.com. Archived from the original on 19 June 2018. Retrieved 14 March 2019.
  40. "2016 Survey: How would you vote in a referendum on whether Northern Ireland should leave the UK and unite with the Republic of Ireland?". Northern Ireland LIFE & TIMES. Northern Ireland Social and Political Archive. 11 June 2018. Archived from the original on 13 July 2018. Retrieved 14 March 2019.
  41. Devenport, Mark (13 June 2018). "Majority surveyed in favour of NI remaining in the UK". BBC. Archived from the original on 13 June 2018. Retrieved 14 March 2019.
  42. "A BBC LT NI Tracker Poll on Identity and Nationality". LucidTalk. 8 June 2018. Archived from the original on 14 March 2019. Retrieved 14 March 2019.
  43. "LucidTalk Tracker Poll (Northern Ireland – NI) Results Report" (PDF). LucidTalk. 6 June 2018. p. 133. Archived (PDF) from the original on 14 March 2019. Retrieved 14 March 2019.
  44. Stone, Jon (8 June 2018). "Brexit causes surge in support for united Ireland, poll finds". The Independent. Archived from the original on 12 June 2018. Retrieved 14 March 2019. Over a quarter of people in the six counties say they have changed their mind since the Brexit vote and now support a united Ireland – bringing polling for a referendum to 45 per cent staying in the UK and 42 per cent leaving it, with 13 per cent undecided.
  45. "LT NI Tracker Poll (October 2017) – Results Report". LucidTalk. 2 November 2017. Archived from the original on 14 March 2019. Retrieved 14 March 2019.
  46. "LucidTalk Tracker Poll (Northern Ireland) Results Report" (PDF). LucidTalk. 1 November 2017. Archived (PDF) from the original on 14 March 2019. Retrieved 14 March 2019.
  47. Tonge, Jon (27 July 2017). "Survey: Voters polarised on same-sex marriage, Brexit, an Irish Language Act in Northern Ireland". Belfast Telegraph. Archived from the original on 28 July 2017. Retrieved 14 March 2019. If Brexit led to a border poll, 52% would vote for Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK and 27% for a united Ireland.
  48. "PROJECT BORDER, page 8" (PDF). Ipsos Mori. 9 September 2016. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 December 2018. Retrieved 29 June 2017.
  49. "Opinion poll indicates NI voters would reject Irish unity". BBC News. 2013-02-05. Retrieved 2022-09-01.
  50. 1 2 3 "Millward Brown Ulster – Reports – Opinion Poll, May 2003 : Slides". 2007-02-08. Archived from the original on 2007-02-08. Retrieved 2023-10-24.
  51. "NI Life and Times Survey – 2002: REFUNIFY". www.ark.ac.uk. Retrieved 2023-10-24.
  52. "NI voters still favour the Union over a united Ireland – but gap narrows to 7%, poll finds". 2025-02-24. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 2025-02-24.
  53. "Majority in North under 45 would vote for united Ireland". Independent.ie. 2024-02-19. Retrieved 2024-02-19.
  54. 1 2 "Behaviour & Attitudes Poll, page 406" (PDF). BBC. 16 October 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 January 2016. Retrieved 12 November 2015.
  55. 1 2 3 "Northern Ireland (NI) Tracker Poll Results Report: Winter (December) 2018" (PDF).
  56. "Brexit 'could create a majority for a united Ireland'". BBC. 3 September 2018. Archived from the original on 3 September 2018. Retrieved 14 March 2019. It says 52% of those surveyed backed a united Ireland with 39% showing support for Northern Ireland staying in the UK.
  57. "GUE/NGL Sponsored – NI OPINION PANEL 'TRACKER' POLL". LucidTalk. 8 December 2017. Archived from the original on 14 March 2019. Retrieved 14 March 2019.
  58. "LucidTalk Tracker Poll (Northern Ireland – NI) Results Report" (PDF). LucidTalk. 8 December 2017. p. 35. Archived (PDF) from the original on 11 October 2018. Retrieved 14 March 2019.
  59. "Poll: NHS could be crucial in border poll with support for united Ireland and the Union running neck-and-neck". Belfasttelegraph. Archived from the original on 29 October 2020. Retrieved 26 October 2020 via www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk.
  60. "Gap between Union and united Ireland support narrows in latest poll". The National. 2025-02-24. Retrieved 2025-02-27.
  61. 1 2 "PROJECT BORDER, page 8" (PDF). Ipsos Mori. 9 September 2016. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 December 2018. Retrieved 29 June 2017.
  62. "PROJECT BORDER, page 6" (PDF). Ipsos Mori. 9 September 2016. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 December 2018. Retrieved 29 June 2017.
  63. 1 2 "Northern Ireland says 'yes' to a border poll... but a firm 'no' to a united Ireland". Belfast Telegraph. 29 September 2014. Archived from the original on 14 February 2015. Retrieved 7 June 2017.
  64. "Full Results of 2014 Belfast Telegraph Poll" (PDF).[permanent dead link]
  65. "Northern Ireland rejects Irish unity by large margin, poll shows". The Irish Times. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
  66. Leahy, Pat (12 December 2021). "Large majority of voters favour a united Ireland, poll finds". The Irish Times. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
  67. "Large majority of voters in Republic in favour of Irish unity – poll". The Independent. 2021-12-11. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
  68. "Exclusive Red C poll: A united Ireland, but at what cost?". Business Post. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
  69. Archer, Bimpe (2021-03-23). "Small majority of people in the Republic are in favour of a united Ireland – poll". The Irish News. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
  70. McMorrow, Connor (25 May 2019). "Exit poll indicates strong support for Irish language". www.rte.ie. Archived from the original on 6 June 2019. Retrieved 11 August 2019.
  71. "Infographic: Most Irish want united Ireland rather than hard border". Statista Daily Data. 2019-01-29. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
  72. "Poll shows that 49% of Irish republic favor a united Ireland". MercoPress. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
  73. Byrne, Claire (16 December 2016). "Sinn Féin's Santa List". RTÉ.ie. Archived from the original on 20 December 2016. Retrieved 1 May 2017.
  74. Hosford, Paul (2016-12-17). "Nearly half of Irish people think it's time for a United Ireland". TheJournal.ie. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
  75. "Smaller majority in republic supports united Ireland". The Sunday Times. Archived from the original on 2014-10-09.
  76. "Behaviour & Attitudes Poll, page 402" (PDF). BBC. 16 October 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 January 2016. Retrieved 12 November 2015.
  77. Beresford, Jack. "The majority of Irish people 'would like to see a united Ireland in their lifetime'". The Irish Post. Retrieved 2023-10-31.
  78. "Behaviour & Attitudes Poll, page 410" (PDF). BBC. 16 October 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on 9 January 2016. Retrieved 12 November 2015.
  79. 1 2 "One in three Britons would mind if Northern Ireland voted to leave the UK, poll finds". Ipsos MORI. 3 April 2019. Archived from the original on 3 April 2019. Retrieved 2019-04-03.
  80. "England, Wales and Scotland all now in favour of Irish unification, research shows". The Irish Times. Retrieved 2024-04-08.
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 the Institute of Irish Studies is part of the University of Liverpool