The military forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan have been engaged in a border conflict since 12 May 2021, when Azerbaijani soldiers crossed several kilometers into Armenia in the provinces of Syunik and Gegharkunik. Despite international calls for withdrawal from the European Parliament, France, Iran, and the United States, Azerbaijan has maintained its presence on Armenian soil, occupying at least 215 square kilometers (83 sq mi) of internationally recognized Armenian territory.[1][41][42][43][44][45] This occupation follows a pattern of Azerbaijan provoking cross-border fights and instigating ceasefire violations when its government is unhappy with the pace of negotiations with Armenia.[46][47][48][49][50][51][52]

There have been repeated escalations, with significant incursions occurring along the Armenia–Nakhchivan border in July 2021 and in the Gegharkunik–Kalbajar area in November 2021.[47] In a further provocation, Azerbaijani forces blockaded southern Armenia in August 2021 by closing the main north–south highway, effectively isolating Armenia from Iran and forcing the creation of alternative transportation routes.[53][54][55][56] The most severe confrontation took place in September 2022, marking the largest attack by Azerbaijan on Armenia in the history of their conflict, resulting in casualties on both sides.[57][58][59][60]

Despite Armenia's appeals for assistance from the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and Russia during Azerbaijan's incursions in May 2021 and September 2022, both entities declined to assist, leaving Armenia on its own.[61][62] Officials from the European Parliament, the United States, and Russia have condemned Azerbaijan's military operations as violations of the ceasefire agreement.[63][64][47][49][65][66][67][48] Azerbaijan's incursions have been combined with threats and territorial claims referring to Armenia as "Western Azerbaijan" made by the president of Azerbaijan:[68] "Armenia must accept our conditions" if Armenians wish to "live comfortably on an area of 29,000 square kilometers" (11,000 sq. mi.).[69][70][71]

In response to the ongoing aggression, Armenia allocated additional defense areas to border guards of the Russian Federal Security Service.[72][73] Additionally, the EU dispatched a CSDP civilian monitoring mission to Armenia to promote border stability and deter future Azerbaijani offensives, despite criticism from Azerbaijani and Russian officials.[74][75][76][41] The enduring conflict has heavily militarized the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, drastically affecting the lives of local Armenian residents. Communities have faced direct targeting, with restricted access to essential resources, farmlands, and social infrastructures, leading to a significant displacement of civilians.[77][78][79][80][81][82][83]

Map showing the territories of Armenia occupied by Azerbaijan (2023)

In April 2024, Armenia and Azerbaijan reached an agreement according to which the border between the two states is to be demarcated on the basis of the Alma-Ata declaration.[84][85]

Background

Armenia and Azerbaijan have not officially demarcated their mutual borders since becoming independent states following collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.[86][87] There were also major clashes in 2012, 2014, 2018 and 2020.

The issue of border demarcation between Armenia and Azerbaijan arose immediately after the defeat of Armenia in the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, and Azerbaijan regaining control over its occupied territories. Before the 2020 war, there was no mutually agreed upon border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with certain Armenian villages and agricultural workers crossing over into Azerbaijan.[88] During Soviet times, cross-border interactions and movements were common.[89][90][91]

The issue of exclaves/enclaves is another border-related issue; there is an exclave called Artsvashen which is formally part of Soviet-era Armenia but controlled by and situated entirely within the current Republic of Azerbaijan; likewise, there are 4 Azerbaijani exclave villages of Karki, Yukhari Askipara, Barxudarlı and Sofulu that were formally part of Soviet-era Azerbaijan but are controlled by and situated entirely within the current Republic of Armenia.[86]

Following the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, physical demarcation of the borders commenced in certain areas using excavators.[87] Azerbaijan used Armenia's main north–south highway and Google Maps to unofficially demarcate the border between the southern regions of the two countries;[89][87][92] Armenian residents who lived on the east side of the highway were given three days to leave.[89][93] Azerbaijan built many new border posts often using Armenian roads under the escort of Russian military.[89] Intimidated by the presence of Azerbaijani military, certain Armenians living in border regions limited the number of trips to the region using the main highway; others moved away permanently.[89] Armenia and Azerbaijan agree that Soviet-era borders should form the basis of border delineation based on the Alma-Ata 1991 Declaration,[94][95] although Azerbaijan has rejected the use of late Soviet maps.[96][97][98][99]

Since the end of the war, Azerbaijan has increasingly promoted expansionist claims to Armenian territory which it describes as "Western Azerbaijan"[100][101][102][103] which have been perceived as a bargaining strategy to force Armenians to relinquish control of Artsakh[104] and concede the "Zangezur corridor."[105] The Azerbaijani government has also successfully petitioned Google to remove historical Armenian place names from maps of Artsakh.[106][107]

In April 2021, Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev made irredentist claims over Armenia's capital Yerevan, Zangezur (Syunik), and Sevan (Gegharkunik), declaring that they are "historical lands" of Azerbaijan.[108][109] He said that if Armenia would not agree to provide a corridor from Nakhchivan to western Azerbaijan through Armenia's Syunik Province, then Azerbaijan would establish it through the use of force, claiming that Azerbaijani people would return to what he described as "West Zangazur".[110][111][112][113] Turkey supports Azerbaijan and also seeks territorial control over Armenia's Syunik province.[114]

A joint statement by the European Parliament Chair of the Delegation for relations with the South Caucasus, Marina Kaljurand, and Standing Rapporteurs on Armenia and Azerbaijan, Andrey Kovatchev and Željana Zovko condemned the statements made by the Azerbaijani side: "To de-escalate the situation...we condemn in particular recent statements by Azerbaijani representatives regarding so-called 'West Zangezur' and referring to the territory of the Republic of Armenia as Azerbaijani 'ancestral land'. Such statements are highly irresponsible and threaten to undermine regional security further."[115]

The day of Azerbaijan's first military incursion on 12 May 2021, it announced it was holding a four-day exercise involving 15,000 soldiers, involving tanks, missile systems, and aviation units, among other military resources.[116][117]

Armenian territory occupied by Azerbaijan

Azerbaijani soldiers are occupying internationally recognized Armenian territory and conducting engineering and fortification works.[3][118][43][44][119][120][4][121][122][123] Estimates of the amount of territory occupied vary between 50 and 215 square kilometers (20 and 83 sq. mi.) with some local Armenian officials and farmers claiming that the Azerbaijani military has made bigger territorial gains than is admitted by officials in Yerevan.[2][3][4][5][6][7][8][124][125]

European PACE monitors have "…observed the presence of Azerbaijani military positions within Armenian sovereign territory sometimes well beyond any disputed border line… [including]… strategic high ground… overlooking the main road linking the capital Yerevan to the Iranian border.[126] These strategic heights are in the regions of Gegharkunik, Kapan, and near the village of Nerkin Khand further south.[8] According to International Crisis Group, these new positions clearly give Azerbaijan an advantage if fighting resumes since they encircle several Armenian villages and overlook the main road to Syunik which is considered "a lifeline for the country's communication's routes" to both Iran and Nagorno-Karabakh.[127][2]

Locals fear Azerbaijan will threaten to cut off southern Armenia from the rest of the country unless Armenia surrenders concessions such as the Zangezur corridor.[127] Southern Armenia (Syunik) is often referred to as "the backbone of Armenia" given that it connects Armenia both to Artsakh as well as to Iran.[128] With 80% of Armenia's borders being closed since Turkey and Azerbaijan's 30 year-long blockade,[129] the border with Iran comprises one of only two open international borders to Armenia.[128]

Since Azerbaijan's military incursions, Armenia's eastern border has become militarized; it has been common for Armenian farmers in border areas to be shot at and for their livestock to be robbed.[78][79] Azerbaijani forces kidnap, torture, rape, execute, and "forcibly disappear" Armenian civilians in border regions.[130][131][132] Fearing for their safety, many Armenian villagers have stopped using land previously used for agricultural purposes and others have moved away permanently.[81][89][79]

Azerbaijan has not withdrawn its troops from internationally recognised Armenian territory despite calls to do so by the European Parliament, United States[133] and France – the latter two which comprise two of three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group.

Azerbaijani media outlets and notable politicians within the country have called for the occupation of more Armenian land.[134][135]

Timeline

May 2021

On 12 May, hundreds of Azerbaijani soldiers crossed several kilometres (miles) into Armenian territory and occupied territory within the provinces of Gegharkunik and Syunik.[136][88][137] The same day, Azerbaijan announced it was holding a four-day exercise involving 15,000 soldiers, tanks, missile systems, and aviation units.[116][117]

In Syunik, Azerbaijani soldiers attempted to surround Lake Sev.[43][88] The soldiers advanced towards civilian settlements, scaring local agricultural workers.[81] Incursions by Azerbaijani soldiers were also observed in Verishen and Sisian within Syunik.[138][139][140]

In Gegharkunik, Azerbaijani incursions were also observed, including in Vardenis,[141][136][138][139][140] with certain media outlets reporting that Azerbaijani forces had captured areas there.[142] The Armenian National Security Service warned of the legal consequences of reporting misinformation that "cause[s] panic."[142]

Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan said negotiations were ongoing for an Azerbaijani withdrawal, and that Armenian forces had stopped the advance without any skirmishes having taken place.[citation needed]

Lake Sev as seen from the peak of Mets Ishkhanasar mountain in Armenia

Azerbaijan claims that its forces did not cross into Armenia and merely took up positions that were inaccessible in winter months, adding that the border between the two countries was never formally demarcated following the collapse of the Soviet Union.[138]

However, Soviet maps from 1975 show that over 90% of Sev Lake is in Armenian territory, with only a small section of the northern shore situated within Azerbaijan SSR[43][143][144] The map also shows the adjacent smaller Lake Janlich (Jinli) as entirely in Armenian territory.[143][145][144] The Azerbaijani side, showed a map with the entire Sev lake belonging to Azerbaijan, and refused to leave the territory.[88][81]

On 13 May, the Armenian Defense Ministry reported that Azerbaijani forces crossed the Armenian border in two other sections.[140] The same day, Nikol Pashinyan said that 250 Azerbaijani soldiers remained within Armenia's internationally recognized borders.[140]

On 14 May, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, formally appealed to the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to hold consultations regarding the Azerbaijani incursion into Armenia.[138][146][147][148] Armenian and Azerbaijani military officials convened at the border together with representatives of the Russian military deployed in the Syunik Province for several hours of negotiations, without any immediate resulting agreement being announced afterwards.[138] Pashinyan also said in a speech on 14 May that French President Emmanuel Macron said that France was ready to provide military assistance if necessary.[117]

On 15 May, Armenia's Defense Ministry stated that the situation regarding the Azerbaijani incursion on 12–13 May remained unresolved, with some Azerbaijani soldiers still on Armenian territory, and that negotiations in order to bring about a peaceful settlement were ongoing.[149]

On 15 May, the press service of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan responded by saying that it was enforcing the borders of Azerbaijan on the basis of "maps available to both sides", criticizing the Armenian statements as "provocative" and "inadequate". The Ministry also accused the Armenian authorities of using the situation for pre-election domestic political purposes,[150][151] a claim which is considered unlikely.[152]

During a call with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Azerbaijani President Aliyev described Armenia's decision to appeal to the CSTO as an attempt to "internationalize the issue".[153]

On 19 May, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia came up with an initiative to create a joint Armenia-Azerbaijan commission on demarcation and delimitation of the borders, in which Russia could play the role of a consultant or mediator.[154] On 20 May, acting prime minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed that Armenia and Azerbaijan were close to an agreement on the creation of a joint commission to demarcate the border between the two countries, with Russia acting as a mediator, and each country appointing delegates to the commission by 31 May.[155]

In the morning of 20 May, a group of Azerbaijani servicemen crossed the border near the village of Khoznavar in the Goris region, walking 1.5 km (1 mile) into Armenian territory. They were forced back to their original positions by Armenian forces, but they then made a second attempt to cross the border in the evening, resulting in a fight between Armenian and Azerbaijani servicemen. The General Prosecutor's Office of Armenia reported that eleven Armenian soldiers were injured and hospitalized, and that there were injuries from the Azerbaijani side, too. The videos of the incident were leaked on social media, initially a video of Azerbaijani military men attacking and beating Armenian soldiers, and, on the next day, another video showing the Armenian Armed Forces expelling Azerbaijani servicemen from their territory appeared.[29]

On 25 May, an Armenian soldier was killed 7 kilometers (5 miles) within Armenian territory which Azerbaijan denied.[152] The same day, all male staff working for the administration of the Sisian community were mobilized into volunteer defense units.[152]

On 27 May, after the tensions rose further after the capture of six Armenian soldiers by Azerbaijani forces early in the morning, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan called for the deployment of international observers along portions of Armenia's border with Azerbaijan. "If the situation is not resolved this provocation could inevitably lead to a large-scale clash," Pashinyan said at an emergency meeting of Armenia's Security Council held in the evening, suggesting Armenia and Azerbaijan to pull back their troops from the border areas and let Russia and/or the United States and France, the two other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, deploy their observers there. The disengagement of troops and the launch of the monitoring mission, should be followed by a process of "ascertaining border points" supervised by the international community, the Prime Minister said.[36]

On 28 May, the EU spokesperson Peter Stano called for immediate de-escalation and urged both sides to pull back their forces to positions held before 12 May and engage in negotiations on border delimitation and demarcation, welcoming proposals for a possible international observation mission and expressing readiness to provide expertise and help on border delimitation and demarcation. The EU continues to call on Azerbaijan to release all prisoners of war and detainees without delay and welcomes all efforts aimed at decreasing tensions.[156]

July 2021

Military positions of the Armenian forces in the northeastern direction of Armenia, which were attacked by Azerbaijani forces on 28 July 2021, according to the Armenian MoD

After an incident on 6 July in the Agdam District, Armenian and Azerbaijani forces clashed again in the directions of Azerbaijan's Tovuz, Gadabay, Nakhchivan and Shusha districts from 7 to 20 July.[157][158][159] On 14 July, the Armenian defence ministry stated that the Azerbaijani engineers tried to advance their military positions near Yeraskh in the Nakhchivan section of the Armenia–Azerbaijan border, and clashes erupted. The ministry added that the Azerbaijani side had started shelling Yeraskh, using mortars and grenade launchers, with an Armenian soldier getting killed[160][22] and the community leader of Yeraskh getting wounded.[161] The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry stated that an Azerbaijani soldier stationed near Heydarabad was wounded during the clashes,[17] and added that the "responsibility for the creation of tension along the state border of the two countries lies entirely with Armenia."[162] The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry later on the same day stated that the Armenian forces had fired at the Azerbaijani positions near Istisu in Kalbajar and Aghdam in Tovuz.[163] On 19 July, further clashes erupted near Yeraskh on Armenia's eastern border with Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan.[50][164]

On 22 July 2021, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev made another irredentist claim over Armenia's province of Syunik (also known as Zangezur), saying that it is "our own territory":

On 23 July 2021, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence stated that one of its soldiers was killed by Armenian sniper fire in Kalbajar District near the Armenia–Azerbaijan border.[10] Meanwhile, the Armenian MoD stated that three Armenian servicemen were wounded as Azerbaijani forces opened fire on Armenian positions located in the Gegharkunik section.[166]

On 28 July 2021, the Human Rights Defender of Armenia reported about intensive firing from the Azerbaijani side between 03:30 and 03:40 targeting civilian buildings in the villages of Verin Shorzha and Saradeghy in the Gegharkunik Province.[167] On the same day, three Armenian soldiers were killed in renewed clashes with Azerbaijani forces in the Kalbajar District and Gegharkunik Province, with four others wounded. Armenia accused Azerbaijan of "occupying Armenia's sovereign territory" as the Azerbaijani side blamed the incident on Armenian forces, stating that they opened fire first. Azerbaijan also reported 2 soldiers wounded during the skirmish.[18][23][31][32]

On 29 July, the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence stated that Armenian forces broke the ceasefire in the morning, using automatic rifles and grenade launchers.[168] Armenian authorities then stated that the Azerbaijani side had violated the ceasefire,[169] but Azerbaijan denied that it broke the ceasefire.[170] An Armenian soldier was wounded in the shootout.[33]

On 31 July, Armenian authorities stated that Azerbaijani forces fired upon a logistic support vehicle delivering food to Armenian military positions in Yeraskh. As a result, the vehicle was "seriously damaged".[171]