Template:Future election

Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 7, 2006, with 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate being contested. Senators are elected for six-year terms with one third of the Senate seats up for a vote every two years. The term of office for those elected in 2006 will be from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2013. Those Senators who were elected in 2000 (known as "Class 1") will be seeking reelection or retiring in 2006.

The 2006 House election is scheduled for the same date as the Senate election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.

The Senate is currently composed of 55 Republicans, who have been in the majority since 2003, 44 Democrats, and one Democratic-leaning Independent (former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont). Jeffords is retiring and his seat is one of the 33 seats being contested, while another 17 are held by Democrats and 15 are held by Republicans.

To control 51 seats, a majority in the Senate, Democrats would need a net gain of six seats (as long as independent candidate Bernie Sanders wins Jeffords' seat in Vermont and continues to caucus with the Democrats as he does in the House). Republicans need to hold only 50 seats after the election to have a majority because the Vice President (currently Republican Dick Cheney) breaks all tie votes in his role as President of the Senate.

CQPolitics.com, an independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, as of September 27, 2006, made the following analysis:

15 Republican seats and 18 Democratic seats are up for election (40 Republican Seats and 27 Democratic seats not up for election). Of these 33 seats:

• 9 Democratic seats and 7 Republican seats are Safe and therefore not considered competitive.
• 1 Republican seat is considered Republican Favored and 4 Democratic seats are considered Democratic Favored, meaning that while these races are not competitive at the moment, they could likely become competitive.
• 2 Republican seats are considered Leans Republican and 3 Democratic seats are considered Leans Democratic, as they are politically competitive, yet one party has a distinct advantage.
• 4 Republican seats (those of Conrad Burns of Montana, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Mike DeWine of Ohio, and retiring Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee) and 2 Democratic seats (those of retiring Senator Mark Dayton of Minnesota and Robert Menendez of New Jersey) are rated as No Clear Favorite.
• 1 Republican seat, currently held by Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, is considered Leans Democratic.

On September 27 CQPolitics.com moved the Tennessee open seat from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." ^[1]

A complete chart of all races categorized appears here.

This online newsletter is run by DC analyst Charlie Cook, and has a similar format to CQ Politics. As of September 20, Cook rates the 33 races as follows:

• 10 Democratic seats and 7 Republican seats as Safe and currently not competitive.
• 2 Democratic seats (including the one held by Jeffords) and no Republican seats as Favored to hold party affiliation, meaning that the races are not competitive as of yet, but have the potential to become competitive.
• 5 Democratic seats and 2 Republican seats as Leaning toward the parties that currently hold each seat. This means that the races are competitive but one candidate has an edge over the other.
• 1 Democratic seat and 6 Republican seats as Toss-Ups, which are in the most competitive tier of races.

Specific ratings of each race appear here.

In middle September, Larry Sabato predicted a pro-Democratic shift of 3-6 Senate seats and described the breakdown as follows:

• D Seats Leaning D: Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Vermont, Washington
• D Seats Tossup: New Jersey
• D Seats Leaning R: None
• R Seats Leaning R: Virginia
• R Seats Tossup: Missouri, Ohio, Rhode Island, Tennessee
• R Seats Leaning D: Montana, Pennsylvania^[2]

As of September 25, 2006, Rasmussen Reports has updated their "Senate Balance of Power" as follows:

• 4 Republican seats leaning Democratic: Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island
• 2 Republican seats as toss-ups: Missouri, Tennessee
• 1 Republican seat leaning Republican: Virginia
• 1 Democratic seat as toss-up: New Jersey
• 4 Democratic seats leaning Democratic: Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Washington
• 8 Republican seats and 13 Democratic seats as safe.

In summary, they conclude: "The battle for control of the U.S. Senate remains very close. Rasmussen Reports now rates 49 seats as Republican or Leans Republican while 48 seats are rated as Democrat or Leans Democrat.... There are now just three states in the Toss-Up category--Tennessee, New Jersey, and Missouri." [1]

Incumbent senators have a high rate of re-election, even when their party affiliation is at odds with other political trends of their state. The most competitive races tend to be those where the incumbent has retired or has served only one term.

The market-based outcomes of an independent public trading exchange suggests as of September 5, 2006, that the most vulnerable Republican seats are Rhode Island, Ohio, Montana, and Pennsylvania. Tennessee and Missouri are safer as well as New Jersey for the Democrats. In Connecticut, it is a close call which of the two Democrats will get the seat—the incumbent Joseph Lieberman or Ned Lamont.

Additional special elections that are held due to the death or resignation of Senators in the interim would change the party balances listed above.

On February 9, 2005, Senator Dayton announced that he would not seek a second term in the Senate. Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar is the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) nominee.

Republican Representative Mark Kennedy secured major GOP endorsements in early 2005 and defeated nominal opposition in the primary. Kennedy has benefited from high-profile Republicans coming to do fundraisers for him, including Vice President Dick Cheney in July 2005 and President George W. Bush in December 2005. Klobuchar has been the frontrunner in every publicly released poll since mid-2005 and appears to be pulling away. The latest poll, published on September 16 by the Star Tribune, has Klobuchar at 56% and Kennedy at 32%.[2].

Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee, the current Majority Leader, has previously promised to leave the Senate when his second term ends in January 2007, and is widely considered to have presidential aspirations for 2008.

Although Tennessee's electoral votes went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, a majority of the state offices are held by Democrats. Tennessee also has more registered Democratic voters than Republican voters and is one of two states in the south to send more Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives than Republicans, the other being Arkansas.

The Democratic nominee is Representative Harold Ford, Jr. and the Republican nominee is Bob Corker, both of whom won primaries on August 3. Corker, former mayor of Chattanooga and 1994 Senate candidate, is well funded and advertised heavily in the western portion of the state during his primary campaign, where he was relatively unknown before this race. Ford currently represents Tennessee's 9th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives. Like Corker, Ford has shown exceptional fundraising prowess, and the race promises to be an expensive one for both parties.

Recent polls show that this race is highly competitive as Corker's lead over Ford has dropped significantly. In a September 5th Rasmussen Poll, Corker led by only one point, 45% to 44%,^[3] while in a SurveyUSA poll, he trailed Ford 48% to 45%.^[4] Both results are within the margin of error.

In late September, CQPolitics.com moved this race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." ^[5]

Some Democrats are now eyeing this race as the "sixth seat" that they can win to gain control of the Senate.^[6]

Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont left the Republican Party to become an independent soon after being reelected as a Republican in the 2000 election. On April 20, 2005, he declared he would not seek another term. The national Democratic Party put independent and democratic socialist Representative Bernie Sanders on their party's ballot in order to keep other Democrats from having a possible "spoiler" effect on the general election results. Sanders won both the Democratic line and an independent line on the ballot.

Rich Tarrant is the Republican nominee, after having won the primary election on September 12.

Senator Paul Sarbanes announced on March 11 2005 that he would retire rather than run for re-election in 2006. Sarbanes' seat was previously considered safe, as Maryland is a Democratic-leaning state. Representative Ben Cardin bested former Representative and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume and others in the Democratic primary. Current Lieutenant Governor Michael S. Steele, a Republican, announced his candidacy on October 25, 2005, and won the Republican nomination over token opposition. Attorney Kevin Zeese has received the nomination of the Populist, Green and Libertarian Parties, but, according to Maryland law, will appear on the ballot as a Green. Democrats have a natural advantage in Maryland, with its large number of African-American voters and government workers, but Steele's personal popularity and potential appeal with his fellow blacks keeps the race competitive. A September 13th Ramussen Reports poll has Cardin leading Steele 50% to 43% [3]. A September 20 poll by Survey USA shows the race essentially even, with Steele at 48% and Cardin at 47%[4].

In 2000, wealthy internet executive and former Congresswoman Maria Cantwell unseated then-Senator Slade Gorton by some 2,200 votes, the smallest margin in state history, after spending a portion of her personal fortune. She has drawn fire from liberals in Washington for some of her votes, including her vote for the Iraq War Resolution, for the confirmation of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and against the attempted filibuster of Samuel Alito. Mark Wilson and Hong Tran filed as primary challengers because of these votes. In 2005 she voiced support in Washington State Democratic Party circles for the John Murtha Resolution on redeploying American armed forces from Iraq. In early July, Wilson announced that he will pull out of the race, endorse Cantwell, and campaign full time on her behalf, after Maria Cantwell offered him a salary of $8000 a month.^[7]

Former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick is the GOP candidate supported by the chairwoman of the Washington State Republican Party, Diane Tebelius. He was once Gorton's Chief of Staff and is believed to have similar moderate-to-conservative politics. The other announced Republican candidates for the Senate seat are paralegal C. Mark Greene, and police officer and minister Brad Klippert.

On March 9 2006, Aaron Dixon, former captain of the Seattle chapter of the Black Panther Party announced his intention to seek the Green Party's nomination for U.S. Senate, challenging Senator Cantwell on her continued support for the U.S. presence in Iraq and the USA PATRIOT Act. The Libertarian Party nominated Western Washington University business instructor Bruce Guthrie as its candidate in April.

In the September 19 primary, Cantwell won the Democratic nomination with over 90% of the Democratic vote and McGavick won the Republican nomination with over 85% of the vote.^[8] This sets up a general election challenge between Cantwell, McGavick, Green Party nominee Aaron Dixon, Libertarian nominee Bruce Guthrie, and independent Robin Adair.

Both candidates have been embarrassed by bad press. McGavick was forced to admit that he was arrested for drunk driving in 1993, and it was revealed that his confession left out some relevant details [5]. A short time later, Cantwell was put on the defensive when it was revealed that she had steered $11 million in Federal funds to clients of a lobbyist who loaned her money in 2000 that she has yet to pay back [6].

Since Rasmussen Report's last poll, Cantwell's 52% to 35% lead has eroded. The latest poll from Rasmussen Reports now has Cantwell leading McGavick 48% to 42%. This also has the race shift towards Leans Democrat [7].

Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut was originally thought to be a shoo-in, but his reelection prospects have been complicated by political cross-currents. Lieberman has drawn fire from the more progressive elements within his party for his continual support for the foreign policy of President George W. Bush and for statements that he has made in which he has criticized other Democrats for "undermining the President" during a time of war. Greenwich telecom-networking businessman Ned Lamont declared his candidacy for the Democratic nomination in March, and went on to receive 33.4% of the nomination vote at the Democratic state convention in May, more than twice the 15% needed to force a primary.

Lamont defeated Lieberman for the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary (Lamont 51.8%; Lieberman 48.2%). Lieberman has decided to remain in the race as a "petitioning candidate,"^[9] having announced on July 3, 2006 that he would begin collecting the necessary signatures to run as an independent in the event he loses the primary.^[10] He has also filed to create a new independent party, "Connecticut for Lieberman."

Challenging Lamont and Lieberman in the general election is Republican Alan Schlesinger, former mayor of Derby and a former state Representative. Schlesinger has a history of winning crossover Democratic voters, but has never run in a large constituency. Schlesinger was recently embarrassed when it was revealed that he was thrown out of a casino for counting cards under an assumed name, leading to speculation that he may withdraw from the race.^[11]

Polls for the general election have yielded mixed results. A September 12 Survey USA poll and a September 28 Quinnipiac poll showed Lieberman ahead by double digits, but the most recent polls from Rasmussen Reports, Zogby, and the American Research Group show Lieberman leading but within the margin of error. Schlesinger trails in all polls by overwhelming margins. [8]

Jon Corzine, elected to the Senate in 2000, was elected Governor of New Jersey in 2005. Corzine appointed Rep. Robert Menendez to serve the last year of the Senate term, and Menendez was sworn in to fill Corzine's vacancy on January 18 2006.^[12] Republican State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr. (the son of former Governor and 9/11 Commission Chairman Thomas Kean) announced on March 25 2005 that he would run for the U.S. Senate. Both nominees have problems within their own parties; Menendez has alienated many fellow Democrats with his aggressiveness and abrasiveness, while Kean is unpopular with party conservatives who consider him to be too liberal. Menendez's 42% approval rating may also be a sign of vulnerability for the incumbent, especially since his disapproval is at 43%[9]. Although incumbents with under 50% ratings in polls are generally considered vulnerable, this standard perhaps doesn't apply to Menendez as he was appointed just recently and is not well known state-wide, a far different situation from most incumbents. President George W. Bush is highly unpopular in the state, but Governor Corzine's early performance in office has met with widespread disapproval, contributing to the large number of undecided voters. The latest poll by Rasmussen Reports gives Kean a 5-point advantage at 44% and Menendez with 39% [10]. Also, an August 30 poll by Farleigh Dickinson University PublicMind puts Kean 43% ahead of Menendez 39% [11]. A September 5 Zogby poll has Menendez and Kean tied at 40% [12] and a September 24 poll by Monmouth University shows Kean leading by 44% to 38% [13].

Due to the lackluster performance of Menendez, who has been repeatedly attacked as corrupt, in what is normally a reliable Democratic state, rumors have been rampant that the New Jersey Democratic party may be considering a move similar to the one they made in 2002, when they replaced struggling, scandal-tainted incumbent Robert Torricelli with the more respected Frank Lautenberg.

Senator George Allen of Virginia is expected by many to be a possible 2008 presidential candidate, which would almost certainly be harmed if he were to lose (or even have a tough race) for his seat in 2006. Former Secretary of the Navy James H. Webb is the Democratic nominee. Gail Parker, is the Independent Green party candidate. Gail Parker is a retired U.S. Air Force officer. Parker also retired as a civilian from the pentagon as an executive civilian budget analyst. She is state secretary of Virginia's Independent Greens.

Allen's approval rating has dropped to 47% in most recent polling, likely due to an embarrassing incident in which he called a Webb volunteer of Indian descent a "macaca" and welcomed him to America, although he was born in Virginia. A September 12th Rasmussen Reports poll shows the effect of the comment were temporary, with Allen at 50% and Webb at 43%[14]. A September 24th SurveyUSA poll has Allen with 49% and Webb with 44% [15]. However, on September 19th, CQPolitics moved this race from Republican Favored to Leans Republican, indicating that the race is tightening [16].

After the report on September 25 and 26 that he frequently uttered the charged niggar epithet while a student at University of Virginia, his campaign is under siege.

Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from current Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by a mere 3% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal, made this a highly competitive race. Burns faces Democratic primary winner and state Senate President Jon Tester.

Burns has long had a history of verbal missteps, and this year is no exception. On July 27, he was forced to apologize after he verbally attacked out of state firefighters who were preparing to leave Montana after helping contain a summer forest fire and directly questioned their competence and skill; Burns was strongly criticized.^[13]

In a September 25th Rasmussen Reports poll, Tester leads Burns 50% to 43%.^[14] Rasmussen Reports has this race at Leans Democrat.

In early August, CQPolitics changed its rating on the race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."^[15]

Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island faced a primary challenge from conservative Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey. In a September 12 primary, Chafee defeated Laffey by a 54% to 46% margin ^[16]. The Democratic candidate is former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, who narrowly lost the 2004 Democratic primary for Governor.

The Chafee/Laffey primary was contentious. Laffey ran as a conservative, but came under fire from other conservatives for supporting tax increases as Mayor and increasing city spending. It was widely believed that the more liberal Chafee would have an easier time winning in the general election due to his appeal to Independent voters. Chafee, however, may be damaged by the contentious primary that could potentially alienate Republican voters and give the Democratic nominee an advantage. Laffey received support from the conservative Club for Growth interest group. Although he is the most liberal Republican in the Senate and has been repeatedly accused of being a RINO by members of his own party, the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee spent a large amount of money backing Chafee, and, in an unprecedented move, announced that they would abandon the race if Laffey won. Nevertheless, Laffey has endorsed Chafee for reelection.

Rasmussen Report's September 13th poll has this race set at Leans Democrat with Whitehouse at 51% and Chafee at 43% [17].

Senator Mike DeWine of Ohio has uninspiring approval ratings and the current Coingate scandal involving the Ohio Republican Party and the widespread unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft could hurt his re-election chances. DeWine faced primary challenges from several more conservative Republicans, such as William G. Pierce, who are unhappy with his relatively centrist stances including his role as one of the Gang of 14 who intervened to stop a showdown over judicial nominations. Lawyer and Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, who narrowly lost to Jean Schmidt in the second district on August 2 2005, said in October 2005 he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge DeWine. U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown announced his candidacy in October 2005. Hackett withdrew from the race on February 14 2006. Both DeWine and Brown won their primaries easily. As of September 14th, Rasmussen Reports puts Brown at 47% and DeWine at 41%, making this race Leans Democrat [18].

John Ensign of Nevada is running for re-election and was initially thought to be popular and politically secure. However, a recent poll shows he has only a 49% approval rating, which is usually not good for an incumbent going into an election year. In addition, his opponent, Jack Carter has the potential to benefit from his father, former President Jimmy Carter's name and fund-raising contacts. Although the exit of Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman from the Democratic primary removes a potentially powerful opponent for Ensign, this race recently became competitive. An August 28th Zogby/WSJ poll shows Ensign with a 48% to 45% lead over Carter, which is within the margin of error[19]. A September 6th Rasmussen Reports poll has Ensign leading Carter 50% to 41% [20].

Wealthy real-estate developer Jim Pederson declared his intention to challenge Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona on September 14 2005. Pederson served as Arizona Democratic Party Chairman from 2001 to 2005 while spending millions of his own money to help Democrats modernize and to elect Janet Napolitano governor. Kyl got an unexpected boost when TIME listed him as one of the Ten Best Senators. According to a September 18th Rasmussen Reports poll, Kyl's lead has been cut to 11 points, compared to 17 points from last month's Rasmussen Reports poll, now putting him at 50% to Pederson's 39% [21].

Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, the third-highest ranking member of the Republican caucus, is the Democrats' top target in 2006. He's a very conservative member of the Senate in a state that went for John Kerry in 2004 by 2.5 percent. In his last election in the year 2000, Santorum received 7,706 more votes than Al Gore, the Democratic candidate for President, who won Pennsylvania by 4.5 percent.^[17] Santorum ran against U.S. Rep. Ron Klink, a pro-life Democrat who wasn't supported by party contributors and was heavily outspent. Democrats believe that Santorum's seat is extremely vulnerable and are making it a priority for a pick-up in 2006. Popular state Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr. is the Democratic nominee and is fully supported by the party establishment, notwithstanding that like Santorum, Casey is pro-life. Santorum also has not benefitted from his recent ultraconservative book, It Takes A Family , which, among other issues, criticises public schools and questions whether or not both parents in a family should work, alleging that women who work are making a selfish decision, and only do so because they find it "empowering". This stance in particular has been seized on by the Casey campaign as proof that Santorum is too conservative for mainstream voters. Santorum also suffered from controversy last year, when he was criticized for sending his three children to a Pennsylvania charter school using taxpayer dollars while listing his primary residence out-of-state. Although the senator has long since withdrawn his children from the school, the issue has further added to his baggage in his quest for re-election.

Another factor in the race is the presence of Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli. He got on the ballot after a massive petition drive "aided by Republicans who bankrolled the effort and Santorum campaign staffers who assisted with the legwork." ^[18]. However, Democrats challenged, and on September 25 a state judge found that there were not enough valid signatures to meet the 67,000 required to allow Romanelli to be on the ballot.^[19]. Romanelli has a separate court action challenging the validity of the threshold that is pending. It is believed that, should he appear on the ballot, Romanelli will siphon votes away from more liberal Democratic voters who oppose Casey's stance on abortion, making the race more competitive in Santorum's favor.

Polls had shown Casey leading Santorum by a 15 to 20 points, but the margin slipped in August and early September. However, a September 20th Rasmussen Reports poll had Casey leading Santorum 49% to 39% and Romanelli with 5% [22].

Senator Jim Talent of Missouri, who was elected to the four remaining years of this term in a 2002 special election, faces a strong Democratic challenge for his seat. Missouri will not hold an election for governor in 2006, making this the only major statewide race in a traditional battleground state. Talent was first elected by a very slim margin and now has a well-known challenger in state Auditor Claire McCaskill, a former Jackson County (Kansas City and suburbs) Prosecutor and the 2004 Democratic Gubernatorial nominee. Missouri is considered a "swing" state. McCaskill carries some political baggage from her 2004 loss. However, Talent was elected to the Senate after a near-successful gubernatorial bid, the same position McCaskill is in now. McCaskill has also gone out of her way to appeal to rural, mainstream voters and actively fought the perception of a "city slicker" which contributes to the defeat of most Missouri Democrats. She has also benefitted from talking up her position in support of stem cell research, which most Missourians support but which Talent opposes. A Sept. 12th Rasmussen Reports poll puts McCaskill at 45% and Talent at 42% [23], and a September 14 poll by Survey USA has McCaskill ahead of Talent by a statistically insignificant 48% to 47% [24]. Nearly all of the polls taken have been within the margin of error trading between slights leads for Talent and for McCaskill. This race is one of the purest toss-ups in 2006 and will probably hinge on turn-out more than any other factor.

Key: (D/DFL) Democratic/Democratic-Farmer-Labor, (R) Republican, (AIP) American Independent, (CFL) Connecticut for Lieberman,
(CC) Concerened Citizens, (Con) Conservative (NY), (C) Constitution, (G) Green, (IAP) Independent American,
(IG) Independent Green Party of Virginia, (IPM) Independence Party of Minnesota, (L) Libertarian, (LU) Liberty Union, (M) Marijuana,
(Mt) Mountain Party, (NU) New Union, (PFP) Peace and Freedom, (PC) Personal Choice, (Pop) Populist Party of Maryland,
(S) Socialist, (SA) Socialist Action, (SE) Socialist Equality, (SW) Socialist Workers, (I) Independent

Note: The colored bar on the far right indicates a seat likely to switch to that party.

• United States House elections, 2006
• United States gubernatorial elections, 2006
• United States presidential election, 2008

• 2006 Election Guide The New York Times
• Projected Senate Map from Electoral-vote.com's coverage of the 2006 elections