The 2024–25 Australian region cyclone season is an ongoing weather event in the southern hemisphere. The season has officially started on 1 November 2024 and will end on 30 April 2025, however, a tropical cyclone could form at any time between 1 July 2024 and 30 June 2025 and would count towards the season total. During the season, tropical cyclones will be officially monitored by one of the three tropical cyclone warning centres (TCWCs) for the region which are operated by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, National Weather Service of Papua New Guinea and the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics. The United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and other national meteorological services including Météo-France and the Fiji Meteorological Service will also monitor the basin during the season.
Season forecasts
Source/Record | Tropical Cyclone |
Severe Tropical Cyclone |
Ref | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Record high: | 21 | 12 | [1] | |
Record low: | 3 | 0 | [1] | |
Average (1969–70 – 2023–24): | 11 | — | [2] |
Ahead of the season officially starting on 1 November, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) both issued a tropical cyclone outlook that discussed the upcoming season.[2][3] These outlooks took into account a variety of factors such as a developing weak to moderate La Niña event and what had happened in previous seasons such as 1983–84, 1995–96, 2005–06 and 2017–18.[2][3] The Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook issued by New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in conjunction with MetService, the BoM and various other Pacific meteorological services, predicted that six to ten tropical cyclones would occur over the South Pacific Ocean between 135°E and 120°W.[3] The outlook also predicted that three to four of these tropical cyclones would intensify further and become either a Category three, four or five severe tropical cyclone on the Australian tropical cyclone intensity scale.[3] In addition to contributing towards the Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone outlook, the BoM predicted that tropical cyclone activity within the whole region between 90°E – 160°E and each of its self-defined subregions would be near normal.[2] They also warned that the likelihood of a severe tropical cyclone was higher than average because of the warmer than average ocean temperatures that had been forecast for the region.[2]
Season summary
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Early Season Activity
The season officially started on 1 November, 2024. On 14 November, the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) noted that a tropical low may form west of Sumatra.[4] A westerly wind shear enhanced the disturbance's development. Despite moderate to high wind shear displacing deep convection, the tropical low further developed and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) issued a tropical cyclone formation alert. [5] On 28 November, the BoM named Tropical Cyclone Robyn. The storm officially peaked as a high-end tropical storm before increasing wind shear caused the storm to dissipate. On 4 December, Tropical Low 04U formed off the coast of Java and headed west before dissipating on 11 December. Unfortunately, the disturbance caused landslides and floods, killing eleven people and leaving seven missing.[6][7] The rest of December had Tropical Lows 02U, 06U, 07U, and 08U. Tropical Low 07U formed southeast of the Cocos Islands and JTWC designated it as a tropical storm. 08U later became Category 3 Cyclone Dikeledi in the Southwest Indian Ocean.
Peak Season Activity
The first half of January had Tropical Lows 09U and 10U. The latter half had Sean, 13U, Taliah, and Vince. On 17 January, the BoM designated Tropical Low 11U, which absorbed 10U, and later named Sean on 19 January. A day later, the storm rapidly intensified to a Category 4 major cyclone on the Australian cyclone scale, possessing a distinct eye and intense winds.[8] Sean dissipated a couple days later. The cyclone caused heavy rainfall and gale-force winds across portions of Western Australia. A record amount of rain fell in Karratha, with 274.4 mm recorded within 24 hours on 20 January.[9] Tropical Low 13U briefly tracked along the coast of Queensland and flooding killed a 63 year old woman.[10] On 31 January, the BoM designated Tropical Lows 14U and 15U, which were later named Taliah and Vince. After dealing with moderate wind shear, on 3 February, Taliah peaked as a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone on the Australian cyclone scale and Category 2 on the SSHWS scale.[11] Taliah exited the basin on 12 February. Vince was named on 2 February and also intensified to a Category 3 on the Australian cyclone scale before exiting BoM area of responsibility on 4 February. February started with Tropical Lows 16U and 19U, though both disturbances exited the basin and entered the Fiji Meteorological Service area of responsibility. Meanwhile, the BoM designated Tropical Low 18U on 7 February, which was named Zelia on 11 February. Two days later, Zelia underwent rapid intensification due to warm sea surface temperatures and relatively low wind shear. At 00:00 UTC 13 February, Zelia intensified to a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone and later to Category 5 intensity.[12] Afterward, the cyclone stalled and underwent an eyewall replacement cycle (EWRC), which ended its rapid intensification phase. Radar imagery showed an EWRC, which was later completed before landfall near De Grey, northeast of Port Hedland.[13]
Systems
Tropical Cyclone Robyn
On 14 November, the Bureau of Meteorology noted that a tropical low could form west of Sumatra.[4] Several days later, they noted that the tropical low was developing.[14] Further consolidation due to a westerly wind burst, which also spawned a twin cyclone, prompted the Joint Typhoon Warning Center to first track it on 23 November.[5] Despite deep convection being displaced due to moderate to high wind shear, the system's circulation became increasingly defined, prompting the JTWC to issue a tropical cyclone formation alert on the disturbance.[15]
Tropical Low 04U
A tropical low formed off the southwestern coast of Java on 4 December. After heading westward for most of its lifetime, it dissipated on 11 December. The storm caused floods and landslides in Sukabumi Regency, West Java, killing eight people and leaving seven others missing, with one home destroyed and 39 others damaged in the regency.[6] Flooding also killed three people in Lebak Regency, Banten.[7]
Tropical Low 02U
Tropical Low 06U
A tropical low formed in the Coral Sea on 21 December.[citation needed]
Tropical Low 07U
A tropical low formed southeast of the Cocos Islands on 22 December.[citation needed]
Tropical Low 08U (Dikeledi)
Dikeledi formed south of Java, Indonesia as a tropical low on 30 December 2024, traversing the southern Indian Ocean before entering the South-West Indian Ocean basin on 4 January.[citation needed]
Tropical Low 09U
Tropical Low 10U
A tropical low formed on 13 January, and whilst initially forecasted by many forecast models to become a Severe Tropical Cyclone, it never intensified, and was instead absorbed by the tropical low which would become Severe Tropical Cyclone Sean.[citation needed]
Severe Tropical Cyclone Sean
Tropical low 11U formed on 17 January, before moving westward, and absorbing TL 10U. On 19 January, it was identified by the Bureau of Meteorology to have reached Tropical Cyclone status, and was named Sean. The following day, Sean rapidly intensified, becoming a Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone on the Australian scale by 8am on January 20, and a Category 2 tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson scale later the same day. During that day, Sean developed an eye, and by 16:00 AWST, the Bureau of Meteorology identified Sean to have reached 165 km/h 10 minute sustained winds, placing it at Category 4 status on the Australian cyclone scale. The peak 1 minute windspeed reached 115 kt, making it a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.[8]
Sean has caused intense rainfall, and gale-force winds across large sections of the Pilbara, and Gascoyne regions of Western Australia, including Onslow, and Exmouth.[16] Cyclone Sean caused a record amount of rain to fall in Karratha, with 274.4 mm recorded in the 24 hours until 9:00 AM local time on January 20.[9] Roads and homes were inundated, power grids were damaged, and ports were closed.[17]
Tropical Low 13U
Tropical Low 13U was tracking along the coast of Queensland. It caused major flooding in Northern Queensland which killed a 63 year old woman [10]
Severe Tropical Cyclone Taliah
Tropical Low 14U formed south of Timor-Leste on 31 January. On 1 February, the Bureau of Meteorology noted that the system had a high 65% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone by Sunday, and an 85% chance of forming before Monday.[18] Later that day, 14U was upgraded to tropical cyclone status and assigned the name Taliah by the BoM. Over the next few days, the system slowly strengthened before being upgraded to a severe tropical cyclone on 3 February.[11] On 12 February, the system moved into the South-western Indian Ocean out of BoM area of responsibility.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Vince
Tropical Low 15U formed in South of Christmas Island on 1 February then on 2 February it got named Vince. The cyclone exited Bureau of Meteorology area of responsibility on 4 February. The system started strengthening gradually. [citation needed]
Tropical Low 16U
Tropical Low 19U
Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia
Tropical Low 18U formed on 7 February. It began tracking west-southwest, and was upgraded to a Category 1 system, named Zelia on 11 February. The storm then steadily intensified to become a Category 2 by the next morning. That night, the storm slowed, and began rapid intensification, to reach Category 4 status by 06:00 AWST on 13 February,[12] and Category 5 status by 12:00 AWST that day. The storm then stalled and began an eyewall replacement cycle as shown by radar imagery, causing the rapid intensification phase to end.[13] Increasing wind shear and the eyewall replacement cycle caused Zelia to peak at 205 km/h 10 minute sustained winds; a Category 5 on the Australian scale.
On 14 February, Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia made landfall at around 12:30 AWST in the afternoon near the De Grey River mouth, northeast of Port Hedland at Category 4 intensity.
Tropical Low 20U
Severe Tropical Cyclone Bianca
Tropical Cyclone Alfred
On 20 February, BOM noted that Tropical Low 22U had formed in the Coral Sea, and was likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone, over the next several days. After two days, JTWC marked the system as a Tropical Storm on the SSHWS scale, whilst the BOM would still keep the storm as a tropical low. Around 16:20 AEST, BOM upgraded the system to a Category 1, and gave it the name Alfred. The storm then continued to slowly move eastward, with the BOM acknowledging that the storm had reached category 2 status on the Australian scale, at 16:00 AEST, on February 24. The storm is now forecast to continue moving eastward, before turning south. Later next week, Alfred is likely to pose a risk to the Queensland coast, with a risk of a landfall in Central or Southern Queensland; however there is still a high likelyhood that the storm will not make landfall, but instead continues south through the Coral Sea, causing large swell across the Eastern coast of Australia.
Storm names
Bureau of Meteorology
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (TCWC Melbourne) monitors all tropical cyclones that form within the Australian region, including any within the areas of responsibility of TCWC Jakarta or TCWC Port Moresby.[19] Should a tropical low reach tropical cyclone strength within the BoM's area of responsibility, it will be assigned the next name from the following naming list. The names that will be used for the 2024–25 season are listed below:
|
Originally, the name Anthony was scheduled to be used, but was switched with Alfred from the next list of names in February 2025 to avoid confusion with Anthony Albanese, the Prime Minister of Australia at the time.[20]
TCWC Jakarta
TCWC Jakarta monitors Tropical Cyclones from the Equator to 11°S and from 90°E to 145°E. Should a Tropical Depression reach Tropical Cyclone strength within TCWC Jakarta's Area of Responsibility then it will be assigned the next name from the following list.[19]
|
|
|
TCWC Port Moresby
Tropical cyclones that develop north of 11°S between 151°E and 160°E are assigned names by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. Tropical cyclone formation in this area is extremely rare, with no cyclones being named in it since 2007.[21] As names are assigned in a random order, the whole list is shown below:
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Season effects
This table lists all of the tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones that were monitored during the 2024–2025 Australian region cyclone season. Information on their intensity, duration, name, areas affected, primarily comes from RSMC Australia. Death and damage reports come from either press reports or the relevant national disaster management agency while the damage totals are given in 2024 or 2025 USD.
Name | Dates | Peak intensity | Areas affected | Damage (US$) |
Deaths | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Category | Wind speed (km/h (mph)) |
Pressure (hPa) | ||||||
Robyn | 18–30 Nov | Category 2 tropical cyclone | 100 (65) | 985 | Indonesia (Sumatra, Java), Cocos Islands | >213,000 | 41 | |
04U | 4–11 Dec | Tropical low | 45 (30) | 1001 | Indonesia (Java), Cocos Islands | Unknown | 11 | |
02U | 7–13 Dec | Tropical low | 55 (35) | 998 | None | None | 0 | |
06U | 21–23 Dec | Tropical low | 45 (30) | 998 | Queensland | None | 0 | |
07U | 22–30 Dec | Tropical low | 65 (40) | 998 | Cocos Islands | None | 0 | |
08U (Dikeledi) | 30 Dec – 4 Jan | Tropical low | 45 (30) | 1002 | None | None | 0 | |
09U | 6–12 Jan | Tropical low | 75 (45) | 1000 | None | None | 0 | |
10U | 13–17 Jan | Tropical low | 30 (15) | 1006 | None | None | 0 | |
Sean | 17–22 Jan | Category 4 severe tropical cyclone | 175 (110) | 945 | Western Australia | Unknown | 0 | |
13U | 29 Jan – 1 Feb | Tropical low | 55 (35) | 999 | Queensland | None | 1 | |
Taliah | 31 Jan – 12 Feb | Category 3 severe tropical cyclone | 140 (85) | 965 | Christmas Island, Cocos Islands | None | 0 | |
Vince | 31 Jan – 4 Feb | Category 3 severe tropical cyclone | 150 (90) | 967 | None | None | 0 | |
16U | 2–4 Feb | Tropical low | Not specified | 1006 | None | None | 0 | |
19U | 7–11 Feb | Tropical low | Not specified | 1000 | Queensland | None | 0 | |
Zelia | 7–14 Feb | Category 5 severe tropical cyclone | 205 (125) | 927 | Kimberley, Pilbara | Unknown | 0 | |
20U | 10–13 Feb | Tropical low | Not specified | Not specified | None | None | 0 | |
Bianca | 18 Feb – Present | Category 3 severe tropical cyclone | 140 (85) | 975 | None | None | 0 | |
Alfred | 20 Feb – Present | Category 2 tropical cyclone | 95 (60) | 986 | Willis Island | None | 0 | |
Season aggregates | ||||||||
18 systems | 18 Nov – Present | 205 (125) | 927 | >213,000 | 53 |
See also
- Weather of 2024 and 2025
- List of Southern Hemisphere cyclone seasons
- Tropical cyclones in 2024, 2025
- Atlantic hurricane seasons: 2024, 2025
- Pacific hurricane seasons: 2024, 2025
- Pacific typhoon seasons: 2024, 2025
- North Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2024, 2025
- 2024–25 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
- 2024–25 South Pacific cyclone season
References
- ^ a b "Australian Tropical Cyclone Database" (CSV). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 30 June 2023. Retrieved 30 June 2023. A guide on how to read the database is available here.
- ^ a b c d e Australian tropical cyclone season long-range forecast for 2024 to 2025 (Report). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. 9 October 2022.
- ^ a b c d 2024-25 Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook (PDF) (Report). New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. 9 October 2024. Retrieved 29 October 2024.
- ^ a b "Tropical cyclone 7 day forecast". Bureau of Meteorology. 15 November 2024. Archived from the original on 15 November 2024. Retrieved 24 November 2024.
- ^ a b Significant Tropical Weather Advisory for the Indian Ocean, 1830Z 23 November 2024 Reissued (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 23 November 2024. Retrieved 23 November 2024.
- ^ a b "Tujuh Orang Masih Hilang Akibat Banjir Bandang di Sukabumi" (in Indonesian). Tempo. 6 December 2024. Retrieved 6 December 2024.
- ^ a b "Tiga Warga Lebak Meninggal Akibat Banjir dan Longsor". Indopos (in Indonesian). 6 December 2024. Retrieved 6 December 2024.
- ^ a b "2025 Severe Tropical Cyclone SEAN (2025018S19119)". IBTrACS.
- ^ a b "Rainfall records tumble as Cyclone Sean intensifies". www.weatherzone.com.au. 20 January 2025. Retrieved 20 January 2025.
- ^ a b Shackelford, Helen Regan, Robert (2 February 2025). "Australia braces for more destruction as deadly floods devastate northeast". CNN. Retrieved 22 February 2025.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ a b http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml
- ^ a b "Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: Australia - Western Region". Bureau of Meteorology. 13 February 2025. Archived from the original on 16 February 2025. Retrieved 14 February 2025.
- ^ a b "Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin: Australia - Western Region". Bureau of Meteorology. 13 February 2025. Archived from the original on 16 February 2025. Retrieved 14 February 2025.
- ^ "Tropical cyclone 7 day forecast". Bureau of Meteorology. 20 November 2024. Archived from the original on 18 November 2024. Retrieved 24 November 2024.
- ^ Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Invest 96S) Reissued (Report). United States Joint Typhoon Warning Center. 26 November 2024. Retrieved 26 November 2024.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map Image - System 1". www.bom.gov.au. Archived from the original on 14 January 2025. Retrieved 20 January 2025.
- ^ "Tropical Cyclone Sean Lashes Western Australia". earthobservatory.nasa.gov. 21 January 2025. Retrieved 3 February 2025.
- ^ "Tropical cyclone forecast". 1 February 2025. Archived from the original on 1 February 2025. Retrieved 1 February 2025.
- ^ a b RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (2023). Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-East Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific Ocean 2023 (PDF) (Report). World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 July 2024. Retrieved 23 October 2023.
- ^ "Australia's next tropical cyclone gets name change to avoid confusion with prime minister". The Guardian. 17 February 2025. Retrieved 18 February 2025.
- ^ Gary Padgett (2008). "Monthly Global Tropical Cyclone Summary October". Australian Severe Weather. Archived from the original on 4 July 2013. Retrieved 1 July 2013.